Jackpot prediction: every open jackpot this week, with a probability for each match
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
A jackpot asks you to call one result for each of 13 to 17 matches, and the prize is large because getting all of them right is extraordinarily rare. This page collects every jackpot list that is open this week and gives each match what most jackpot tips leave out: the probability behind the pick. Click a jackpot for its full table, the double we would cover on each match, and how our picks did in earlier rounds.
Open jackpots this week
| Jackpot | Matches | First kick-off | Our picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| SportPesa Midweek Jackpotcoupon open | 13 | about 5.2 of 13 expected | |
| Betika Must Be Won Jackpotcoupon open | 15 | about 6.1 of 15 expected | |
| SportPesa Mega Jackpot #203coupon open | 17 | about 6.8 of 17 expected | |
| Betika 15M Midweek Jackpotcoupon open | 15 | about 6.5 of 15 expected |
Times are East Africa Time (EAT); Nigeria is two hours behind and Ghana three, and the site converts the times to your own clock where it can.
How we price a jackpot
Every match on a jackpot coupon is looked up in our match data. Where our model rates both clubs, it computes the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win the same way it does for every tip on this site, then blends that with the bookmaker's prices after the margin is removed. Where it cannot rate a club yet, usually a newly promoted side or a league we do not follow, the probabilities are the organiser's own prices with the margin taken out, labelled "from the odds". Our pick is simply the likeliest outcome, and the double is the two likeliest together.
The picks are refreshed four times a day while the coupon is open and frozen at the first kick-off, when the coupon closes. After the matches, the results are filled in and the count of correct picks is published for each round, good or bad.
Why a full house is so rare
On a typical weekend list the likeliest outcome of a match carries something like a 35% to 50% chance, and draws sit near 25% almost everywhere. Multiply seventeen of those together and the chance of a perfect coupon is measured in millions to one. That is not a weakness of any model; it is the arithmetic the prize is built on. A realistic target for a well-priced coupon is the number of correct calls, and each jackpot table shows how many the picks are expected to get right on average.
Spend your doubles where they matter
Most coupons let you cover some matches with two outcomes at a higher stake. A double helps most where the pick is weakest, so the table marks the probability of each double and the summary names the least certain matches on the list. Covering a 38% pick with a 62% double does far more for the coupon than doubling a match the model already rates at 60%.
How our jackpot picks have done
The record starts once the first round we priced has been played.
How we pick
The model behind every number here is described on the methodology page, and our single tips are settled every day on the track record. For the matches of the day outside the jackpots, see the mathematical prediction table and the prediction for today. A jackpot is a bet like any other: stake only what you can afford to lose. This site is for adults aged 18+; see responsible gambling for limits and support.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: TIPSQUANT
Frequently asked questions
Which jackpots does this page cover?
The SportPesa Mega Jackpot, the SportPesa Midweek Jackpot, and Betika's midweek and Must Be Won jackpots. Each list is read from the organiser as soon as it is published and priced in the next update, four times a day.
What is the best jackpot prediction site?
Judge any site by two things it can prove rather than claim. Does it give a probability for every match, so you can see how confident each pick is? And does it publish how its past picks did, round by round, without deleting the bad weeks? This page does both, and you can check it against the record table below.
Is there a jackpot prediction for today?
Whichever jackpot plays next is at the top of the table above, with the date and time of its first kick-off. Our picks for a round stay open to updates until that first kick-off and are frozen from then on.
Can a jackpot be won with predictions alone?
Rarely. Even when every pick is the likeliest outcome, all of them landing together happens far less than once in a thousand rounds. Predictions raise your expected number of correct calls; they do not make a full house likely. Any bet can lose.
Why do some matches say "from the odds"?
Our model rates a club only after it has eight matches in our data. For a match involving a club below that, the probabilities are the organiser's own prices with the bookmaker margin taken out, and the row says so rather than dressing the odds up as a forecast.