Bundesliga predictions: Germany's fixtures for the week, with the goals tips the league is known for
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
The Bundesliga is the league bettors in East and West Africa open when they want goals, and the model agrees with the instinct: Germany's scoring level is the highest among the European leagues we cover, so more of its fixtures clear the over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score thresholds than anywhere else. This page lists the next seven days of German top-flight fixtures with 1/X/2 probabilities, the current table, and the result, goals and GG tips that passed the thresholds, filtered to the Bundesliga.
Bundesliga fixtures in the next seven days
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Goals, and why the calibration matters here
A raw Poisson model is at its most over-confident in a high-scoring league. Give it two attacking German sides and it will happily print over 2.5 at 75% or more, a number that does not survive contact with real results. That is why the goals probabilities on this site are calibrated: a two-parameter correction, fitted on one past season and checked against the next, pulls those extremes back towards what actually happens. The over 2.5 figures you see for Bundesliga matches are therefore lower than a naive model would show, and meant to land as often as they say. The over 2.5 predictions hub explains the calibration in depth.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 10 | |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 | |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | |
| 7 | SV 07 Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| 8 | SV Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | |
| 11 | Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | |
| 12 | Paderborn 07 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | |
| 13 | Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | |
| 14 | TSG Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 | |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 | |
| 18 | Gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
The week's Bundesliga tips
Bundesliga match result tips this week
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Bundesliga over 2.5 goals tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Bundesliga both teams to score tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Most likely Bundesliga correct scores
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Reading a German fixture
Home advantage in the model is estimated separately for each competition, and Germany's has been on the larger side, which is one reason an away favourite in the Bundesliga needs a clear rating edge to reach 55%. The 18-club format also means that the gap between the title contenders and the sides fighting relegation shows up early in the season: by the first international break the fixtures table usually contains a few very short home favourites and a cluster of genuinely open games. Fair odds are one divided by the probability; compare them with the price in your app rather than trusting the favourite's name.
The things the model cannot see apply here as everywhere. Midweek European fixtures tire the top sides, a mid-season winter break resets form in ways three seasons of weighted results cannot anticipate, and a coaching change moves a German club quickly. Use the probabilities as the starting point and add what you know.
How we pick these tips
Every tip on this page comes from the Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model that runs the site, fitted on roughly three seasons of Bundesliga results and linked to the other leagues through the European competitions. Where bookmaker odds are available, the model's figure is blended 50/50 with the market after the margin is removed. The methodology page lists every threshold and every limit. The both teams to score today page has the GG market across all competitions.
Any bet can lose, and a goals bet can lose on a 2-0 that stays 2-0. Stake money you can spare, bet only if you are aged 18+, and visit our responsible gambling page to set limits.
Settled record for the last 30 days, every league
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: MEGAGLOBAL
Frequently asked questions
Why do Germany Bundesliga predictions lean towards overs?
Because the Bundesliga's scoring level in the model has been the highest of the big European leagues in recent seasons. Higher expected goals push more fixtures past the 60% needed for an over 2.5 tip and the 58% needed for GG. The model still prices each match individually.
What time is the Saturday Bundesliga kick-off in East Africa?
The main Saturday slot of 15:30 in Germany is 16:30 EAT in European summer time and 17:30 EAT in winter. The evening match follows at 19:30 or 20:30 EAT. Nigeria is two hours behind EAT and Ghana three.
Why does the Bundesliga have fewer fixtures per round?
The league has 18 clubs, so a full round is nine matches and the season is 34 rounds. That gives the model slightly less data per team per season than in a 20-club league, which the three-season window largely makes up for.
Is a Germany Bundesliga prediction settled on 90 minutes?
Yes. League matches cannot go to extra time, so every tip is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Are German second division matches included?
Not at the moment. Only the top flight is in our covered list for Germany. The second division will be added when its fixtures are available to the model.