NPFL table, fixtures and model predictions: Nigeria's top flight priced match by match
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Readers in Nigeria search for the NPFL table more than for anything else about the league, and this page starts with it: the standings as they stand after the latest refresh, with the fixtures for the next seven days above them and the probabilities the model attaches to each one. The Nigeria Premier Football League is one of six domestic African competitions in our data, and it is treated exactly like the European ones: the same Dixon–Coles model, the same thresholds and the same automatic settlement of every tip.
NPFL fixtures in the next seven days
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
NPFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barau | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | |
| 2 | Plateau United | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | |
| 3 | Doma United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| 4 | Enugu Rangers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | |
| 5 | Kano Pillars | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | |
| 6 | Rivers United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | |
| 7 | Ikorodu City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | |
| 8 | Sporting Lagos | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | |
| 9 | Katsina United | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 | |
| 10 | Kwara United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| 11 | Ranchers Bees | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | |
| 12 | Abia Warriors | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 | |
| 13 | Nasarawa United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 | |
| 14 | Warri Wolves | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 | |
| 15 | Shooting Stars | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 | |
| 16 | Bendel Insurance | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 | |
| 17 | Niger Tornadoes | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 | |
| 18 | Enyimba | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 | |
| 19 | Inter Lagos | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
Reading the table alongside the probabilities
A league table tells you who has collected points; the model's ratings tell you who has been scoring and conceding, home and away, over three seasons with the recent games counting most. The two often disagree in the first third of a season, when a club with a kind run of home fixtures sits higher than its ratings would put it. When you see a side near the top of the NPFL table priced as an underdog away from home, that is the model saying its away record has not matched its position. It is a reason to look closer, not a verdict.
Home advantage in Nigeria
Every competition in the model has its own home advantage, fitted from the results rather than assumed, and the NPFL's is among the strongest in our data. Long journeys, afternoon heat and crowds that travel very little all push results towards the home side, and the probabilities reflect that. The practical consequence for bettors is that away wins and even away draws come up far less often in the tips tables than they do for the European leagues, and that a home favourite in the NPFL carries a bigger number than the same gap in ratings would produce in England.
This week's NPFL tips
NPFL match result tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
NPFL over and under 2.5 goals tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
NPFL both teams to score tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Most likely NPFL correct scores
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
What the model does not know about the NPFL
It does not know who has been paid, which pitch is waterlogged, who is on national-team duty or whether a match has been moved to a neutral venue. It also sees bookmaker odds for NPFL matches only when the operator opens the market, which is often a day or two before kick-off, so most of the week the probabilities here are the model's alone rather than the usual blend. Where you know something about a fixture that the numbers cannot, trust it, and treat the model as the base rate you are adjusting from.
How we pick, and how to read this page
The probabilities, fair odds and thresholds are described in full on the methodology page. Goals markets are calibrated so that a published figure means what it says, and results in the CAF Champions League and Confederation Cup link Nigerian clubs to the rest of the African data. The Ghana Premier League and Uganda Premier League pages work the same way, and the prediction for today page gathers the day's tips from every competition in one list.
Any bet can lose, and an NPFL match with a strong home favourite is no exception. Bet only if you are 18 or over, decide your stake before kick-off and keep it, and read our responsible gambling page before you open an account.
How the tips have done over the last 30 days, all leagues
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: MEGAGLOBAL
Frequently asked questions
How often is the NPFL table on this page updated?
The table is rebuilt from finished results every morning and again during the day. If a match ended last night, the standings here reflect it by the next refresh; we do not type results in by hand, so there is nothing to correct manually.
Where are the NPFL results?
Finished matches drop out of the fixtures table and show up in the standings, and any tip we gave on them is settled on the track record page. We do not keep a separate results archive: the table and the record are the two places where results live.
Why is an NPFL prediction less confident than a Premier League one?
Fewer finished matches behind each rating, and almost no fixtures against teams from other leagues to anchor those ratings. Our thresholds are the same for every competition, so fewer NPFL matches clear them, and the ones that do should be treated with the same caution as any tip.
What time are NPFL kick-offs shown in?
All kick-offs on the site are listed in East Africa Time and converted to your local time by your browser. Nigeria is on West Africa Time, two hours behind EAT, so a 16:00 EAT listing is a 14:00 kick-off in Lagos or Enugu.
Do you have NPFL predictions for every match?
The fixtures table always shows a probability for every match in the next seven days. The tips tables only list matches whose probability clears a market threshold, and any team with fewer than eight matches in our data gets no tip at all, so early in a season several fixtures will have probabilities but no tips.