Europa League predictions: this week's UEL and Conference League fixtures, tables and model tips
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Thursday is Europa League night, and this page is where the model's view of it lives. It covers both of UEFA's Thursday competitions: the Europa League first, with the fixtures for the next seven days, the league-phase table and the tips that cleared our thresholds, and then the Conference League in the same format. The two are treated identically by the model, and they share the problem that makes European predictions interesting: clubs from many different leagues, some of which the model knows well and some barely at all.
Europa League fixtures in the next seven days
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 3 | Sparta Prague | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 | Ferencváros | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 8 | Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 9 | OFI Crete | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12 | S.C.U. Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 13 | Olympiacos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16 | Omonia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 20 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 21 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 26 | AZ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 29 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 36 | NEC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 | L |
Known clubs, unknown clubs and what the gap does to the probabilities
A club from one of the domestic leagues we cover arrives at a European fixture with a rating built on three seasons of matches. A club from a league we do not cover has only its European results, often a handful. The model handles this honestly: the first kind of club gets a confident rating, the second a vague one, and when they meet the probability reflects that gap. In practice the favourite's number is often lower than the bookmaker's price implies, because the model will not stretch to a strong opinion on a side it has barely seen. That caution is deliberate, and it is why Europa League tips come mostly from matches where both clubs are from covered leagues.
The Europa League tips for the week
Europa League match result tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Europa League over and under 2.5 goals tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Europa League both teams to score tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Most likely Europa League correct scores
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Conference League: the same model, a wider spread of clubs
The Conference League draws from more leagues than any other UEFA competition, so the share of clubs the model knows only from European matches is higher. Expect more fixtures with probabilities but no tips, and expect the correct score table to show flatter distributions, where the most likely scoreline leads the next by a point or two. The goals tips that do appear tend to come from the handful of clubs from the big leagues, whose ratings are precise enough to clear the thresholds against weaker opposition.
Conference League fixtures in the next seven days
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mjallby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Jablonec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | Gent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | Sint-Truidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | Getafe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | KuPS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | Hajduk Split | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | Pafos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | AGF Aarhus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | Copenhagen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | Midtjylland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | Nordsjaelland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | Panathinaikos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | Brann | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | Heart of Midlothian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | Lugano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | Red Star Belgrade | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | Thun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | Trabzonspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | Borac Banja Luka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | Kairat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | Egnatia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | Zalgiris Kaunas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | Universitatea Craiova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 | Iberia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 | Lincoln Red Imps | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | Riga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Conference League match result tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Conference League over and under 2.5 goals tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Rotation on Thursday, and the second-leg problem
Clubs in the Europa League play again on Sunday, and many rotate heavily on Thursday, especially in the league phase and especially the ones that expect to qualify anyway. The model works from results and sees a changed eleven only after it has produced some. In the knockout rounds the second leg is priced as a standalone 90 minutes with no knowledge of the aggregate, so a side needing to chase may be priced as if it would be happy with a draw. Those are the two weeks of the European season when your own reading should weigh most.
How we pick, and how to read this page
The probabilities come from the Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model on the methodology page, with calibrated goals markets and a half-and-half blend with bookmaker odds where those are available. The Champions League predictions page covers Tuesday and Wednesday in the same way, and the correct score prediction page explains how to read a flat scoreline distribution. For a Thursday acca, the accumulator calculator shows what the combined probability really is.
Any bet can lose, and a Thursday with a dozen fixtures across two competitions produces surprises every round. Bet only if you are aged 18+, decide your stake in advance, and read our responsible gambling page.
Thirty days of settled tips, every competition
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: MEGAGLOBAL
Frequently asked questions
Are Europa Conference League predictions on this page too?
Yes. The Conference League plays on the same Thursday nights and is covered by the same model, so its fixtures, table and tips sit in their own section lower on this page rather than on a separate one.
When are the Europa League predictions for today published?
The fixtures table always covers the next seven days, so Thursday's matches are priced from the previous Friday. The ratings are refitted every morning and again during the day, which makes Thursday morning's figures the freshest.
How does the model rate a club from a league it does not cover?
From the European matches it has played. A club from a league outside our data enters the ratings only through its continental fixtures, so it starts with few matches and no tips until it has played eight. Its probabilities in the fixtures table are the most uncertain on the site.
What time are Europa League kick-offs in East Africa?
The two Thursday slots in central Europe are 19:45 EAT and 22:00 EAT. Nigeria is two hours behind, so 17:45 and 20:00; Ghana is three hours behind, so 16:45 and 19:00. The site converts each kick-off to your local time.
Is a Europa League tip settled if the tie goes to extra time?
No, it is void. Tips are settled on the 90-minute score only. League-phase matches have no extra time, so this concerns the knockout rounds, where the second leg can go beyond 90 minutes.