KPL table, fixtures and the model's FKF Premier League predictions for the week
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
The FKF Premier League is still "the KPL" to almost everyone who searches for it, and this page is where Kenya's top flight gets priced by the same model as every other competition on TipsQuant. Below are the Kenyan fixtures for the next seven days with 1/X/2 probabilities, the KPL table, and the result, goals and both-teams-to-score tips that cleared our thresholds for Kenyan matches only. The tables are filled from our data feed four times a day; while the feed has no Kenyan matches, they show a short note and fill on their own as soon as the season's fixtures arrive.
FKF Premier League fixtures in the next seven days
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes four times a day.
KPL table
The table appears once this season's first results reach our data.
The table shows what happened; the probabilities show what is expected
The two blocks above answer different questions. The KPL table is a record of points already won. The probabilities beside each fixture come from attack and defence ratings fitted on roughly three seasons of results, with recent matches weighted more, so a club sitting third can be rated above the club sitting first if its underlying results over that longer window are stronger. Early in a season the table is a handful of matches and tells you little; the ratings carry over from previous seasons and tell you more. A promoted club with fewer than eight matches in our data gets probabilities but no tips until it has played them.
Kenya's own scoring level and home advantage
Every league in our data gets its own scoring level and its own home advantage, fitted from that league's results alone. That matters for the KPL because it decides which markets produce tips. A low scoring level pushes matches towards under 2.5 and towards "no" in both teams to score; a high one does the opposite. We do not quote the fitted figure because it is refitted at every refresh, but you can read it off the tables: a goals table that is mostly unders for weeks is the model telling you how the league scores. For a goals bet that clears its threshold more often in a tight league, the over 1.5 prediction page is usually the better place to look.
This week's FKF Premier League tips
KPL match result tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes four times a day.
KPL over and under 2.5 goals tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes four times a day.
KPL both teams to score tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes four times a day.
Most likely FKF Premier League correct scores
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes four times a day.
Where a KPL tip goes next
A Kenyan favourite that clears 55% is a single; whether it belongs in a multiple is a separate question. The sure 2 odds page shows the accumulator the model built for the day and whether a KPL leg made it in, and the draw prediction page is where Kenyan matches tend to appear when two evenly rated sides meet. For the weekend slate across every competition, including Kenya's, use the weekend prediction page. The Uganda Premier League and NBC Premier League pages cover the neighbours in the same format, and all three share East Africa Time.
How we pick, and how to read this page
The model behind every number here is described in plain words on the methodology page: a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model, with the over/under and both-teams-to-score probabilities calibrated on past seasons so that a published 60% is meant to land about six times in ten. Fair odds are one divided by the probability. A bookmaker price above fair odds is what makes a tip worth a stake; a price below it means the market disagrees, and the market is often right.
Any bet can lose, and a KPL tip at 60% loses four times in ten by design. Bet only if you are 18+, decide your stake before kick-off, and keep it to money you can afford to lose. Our responsible gambling page lists the limits and tools that help with that.
Thirty days of settled tips across every competition
Last 30 days
- Tips
- 23
- Won
- 19
- Lost
- 4
- Hit rate
- 83%
| Market | Tips | Won | Hit rate | Profit at listed odds (1 unit stakes) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 6 | 4 | 67% | -0.26 |
| Double chance | 6 | 6 | 100% | +0.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals | 2 | 1 | 50% | -0.37 |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals | 8 | 8 | 100% | +1.52 |
| Both teams to score | 1 | 0 | 0% | -1.00 |
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: TIPSQUANT
Frequently asked questions
Is this the Kenya Premier League table or the FKF Premier League table?
The same competition. Kenya's top division is run by the FKF and most readers still type "KPL table" or "Kenya Premier League table" when they look for it. We use the plain name in the tables and both names in the text so that either search lands here.
Why is the KPL table on this page empty?
Because no match of the current season has reached our data feed yet, either because the season has not started or because its first results are still on the way. The table and the fixtures list are built from the feed four times a day, and they fill on their own at the first refresh after the league's matches are in. Nothing on this page is typed in by hand.
Do you give a Kenya Premier League prediction for today?
On a matchday, yes: today's Kenyan fixtures sit at the top of the seven-day list with their probabilities, and any that clear a threshold appear in the tips tables below. On days without a KPL fixture the tables show the next round instead.
What is the difference between a KPL prediction here and the bookmaker's odds?
Our number is a probability from a statistical model; the bookmaker's odds carry a margin. Fair odds on this page are one divided by our probability. Where MegaPari odds for a Kenyan match are in our data, the result, over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score probabilities are blended half and half with the odds after the margin is stripped out.
Are Kenya Premier League fixtures shown in Nairobi time?
Yes. The site runs on East Africa Time, so a Kenyan kick-off needs no conversion for readers in Kenya. Readers in Uganda and Tanzania see the same time; Lagos is two hours behind and Accra three, and the page converts for them.