Uganda Premier League predictions: the UPL table, this week's fixtures and the model's tips
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Uganda is on East Africa Time, which makes this one of the few league pages where the listed kick-off is the local one with no conversion needed. The Uganda Premier League here gets the same treatment as every competition in our data: the fixtures for the next seven days with the model's 1/X/2 probabilities, the UPL table, and the tips that cleared our thresholds for Ugandan matches only, all refreshed daily.
Uganda Premier League fixtures in the next seven days
| Kick-off | Match | 1 | X | 2 | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitara – Kigezi Homeboyz | 76% | 18% | 6% | Kitara to win | |
| Maroons – Lugazi | 53% | 31% | 16% | Maroons to win | |
| Ntugasaze – Mbarara City | 33% | 29% | 37% | Mbarara City to win | |
| Kataka – Villa | 11% | 26% | 63% | Villa to win |
UPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | |
| 2 | NEC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | |
| 3 | Villa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | |
| 4 | Blacks Power | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | |
| 5 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| 6 | Entebbe UPPC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| 7 | Lugazi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | |
| 8 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| 9 | Express | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | |
| 10 | KCCA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | |
| 11 | Vipers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| 12 | Maroons | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 | |
| 13 | URA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | |
| 14 | Kitara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 15 | Mbarara City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | |
| 16 | Kataka | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | |
| 17 | Kigezi Homeboyz | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | |
| 18 | Ntugasaze | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
What the UPL looks like through the model
Three features stand out. The scoring level is modest, so a match with the two strongest attacks in the league can still carry an over 2.5 probability below the 60% a tip needs. Home advantage is marked, especially for clubs playing far from Kampala, where a visiting side's probability of winning is often in the teens. And the gap between the top three or four clubs and the rest is wide enough that the 1X2 table on this page is dominated by those clubs' home matches, with the occasional away favourite when they visit the bottom of the table. Readers who follow the league will recognise all three; the model simply attaches numbers to them.
Why the probabilities move during the week
The ratings are refitted every morning. A midweek result anywhere in the league changes two clubs' ratings slightly, and that nudges every fixture they are involved in. For the UPL the bigger movement comes from bookmaker odds: when the operator prices a match, usually a day or two before kick-off, the model's probability is blended half and half with the odds' implied probability after the margin is removed, and the figure on this page shifts to meet the market. A tip that was present on Tuesday can be gone by Friday because the blend pulled it under the threshold, and that is the system working rather than failing.
This week's Uganda Premier League tips
UPL match result tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
UPL over and under 2.5 goals tips
| Kick-off | Match | Tip | Probability | Fair odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maroons – Lugazi | Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | Pending |
UPL both teams to score tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Most likely UPL correct scores
| Kick-off | Match | Correct score | Expected goals | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitara – Kigezi HomeboyzUganda Premier League | 2-0 (18.0%)1-0 17.2% · 3-0 12.4% | 2.1 – 0.4 | Pending | |
| Maroons – LugaziUganda Premier League | 1-0 (20.0%)0-0 16.6% · 2-0 12.7% | 1.2 – 0.6 | Pending | |
| Ntugasaze – Mbarara CityUganda Premier League | 1-1 (13.7%)0-1 11.8% · 1-0 10.9% | 1.1 – 1.2 | Pending | |
| Kataka – VillaUganda Premier League | 0-1 (20.0%)0-2 15.6% · 0-0 13.5% | 0.5 – 1.5 | Pending |
Using this page with the rest of the site
A UPL tip on its own is a single; the sure 2 odds page shows whether the model used any Ugandan match in the day's accumulator, and the banker of the day page tells you if a UPL favourite was the most confident call across all competitions, which happens from time to time when the European leagues have a quiet day. The NBC Premier League page covers Tanzania in the same format for readers who follow both.
How we pick, and how to read this page
Everything above comes from the model described on the methodology page: a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model with calibrated goals markets, fitted on finished matches with recent games weighted more. Fair odds are one divided by the probability, and a price above fair odds is what we look for.
Any bet can lose, and a Ugandan fixture at 60% is still a four-in-ten chance of a losing ticket. Bet only if you are 18+, set a stake you can afford before the match and stick to it, and read our responsible gambling page.
Thirty days of settled tips, every competition
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: MEGAGLOBAL
Frequently asked questions
Is this the current UPL table?
Yes, as of the last data refresh. The table is rebuilt from finished results every morning and again during the day, and the time stamp on the page tells you when that last happened.
How are Uganda Premier League predictions made?
By a statistical model that gives every UPL club an attack and a defence rating from roughly three seasons of results, with recent matches weighted more. From those ratings it computes the probability of each scoreline and then of each market. There is no human pick; the methodology page describes the model in plain words.
Why does a UPL match have probabilities but no tip?
A tip needs a probability above the market's threshold, such as 55% for a favourite or 60% for over 2.5 goals. Many UPL matches sit below those lines, and a club with fewer than eight matches in our data gets no tip at all. The probability still appears in the fixtures table.
Are UPL kick-off times shown in Ugandan time?
Yes. Uganda is on East Africa Time, which is the time zone used throughout the site, so the listed time is the Kampala time. Readers in Nigeria see it converted two hours earlier, and readers in Ghana three.