Ligue 1 predictions: France's fixtures for the week, priced by the model
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Ligue 1 is a league of one very strong side and a competitive field beneath it, and that shape shows up clearly in the model's output. The leader carries some of the shortest fair odds on the site; the rest of the table produces a steady supply of close matches where the draw and both results are all live. This page gives you France's top-flight fixtures for the next seven days with 1/X/2 probabilities, the current standings, and the result, goals and GG tips that cleared the thresholds for French matches.
Ligue 1 fixtures in the next seven days
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Short favourites and how to read them
A probability of 80% means the model expects the favourite to lose or draw one match in five. That is the same as saying the fair odds are 1.25, and a bookmaker's price of 1.20 on the same outcome is below fair value even though the team almost always wins. Ligue 1 produces this situation more than any other league we cover, and it is the clearest illustration of why our tables print a probability rather than a verdict. The banker of the day page is where the highest-probability single of the whole day appears, and French fixtures feature there regularly.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 3 | PSG | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 5 | Rennes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 | DWWWL |
| 6 | PSG | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | DDLWW |
| 7 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | LWLDW |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | LWWDL |
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | DLDDW |
| 10 | AJ Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 | LLLWW |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 | DDWLL |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 | LDLDW |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 | DLDLW |
| 15 | Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | WLLDL |
| 16 | ES Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 | DWLLL |
| 17 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 | LDLDL |
This week's tips from France
Ligue 1 match result tips this week
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Ligue 1 over and under 2.5 goals tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Ligue 1 both teams to score tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Most likely Ligue 1 correct scores
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
The middle of the table
Away from the leader, French fixtures are priced close to even and the draw probability frequently climbs towards the 31% a draw tip requires. The scoring level the model fits for France has sat in the middle of the European range, so over 2.5 and under 2.5 tips are both possible in a given week but neither dominates. Both teams to score is the market where the mid-table matches most often clear a threshold, because evenly matched attacks tend to score against each other. The 1X2 predictions page shows the result market across every league if you want to see the French fixtures in that wider context.
How we pick, and what to add yourself
The Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model described on the methodology page prices every match here, with goals markets calibrated and a 50/50 blend with bookmaker odds where those are available. The model uses results only. It does not see the heavy rotation French clubs practise around European midweeks, the January transfer window that reshapes squads in this league more than most, or a change of coach. Each of those is worth a check before you back a short favourite.
Any bet can lose, including a 1.20 favourite. Stake only what you can spare, bet only if you are aged 18+, and use the limits described on the responsible gambling page.
Last 30 days of settled tips, all leagues
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: MEGAGLOBAL
Frequently asked questions
Why is the France Ligue 1 prediction for the leading club so short?
When one side's attack and defence ratings are far ahead of the rest, the model gives it a high win probability and therefore short fair odds, often below 1.30 at home. A short price is not a safe price; the question is whether the bookmaker pays more than the fair odds.
What time are Ligue 1 kick-offs in East Africa?
French fixtures run from Friday night to Sunday night. Common slots are 18:00, 20:00 and 22:05 EAT in European summer time, an hour later in winter. Subtract two hours for Nigeria and three for Ghana; the site converts each time for you.
How many matches are in a Ligue 1 round?
Nine, because the league has 18 clubs and plays 34 rounds. The fixtures table covers the next seven days, so it usually shows one full round and occasionally part of a midweek one.
Where is the double chance tip for a Ligue 1 match?
Double chance tips need 80% probability and are shown on the 1X2 predictions page rather than here. In France the leading club often reaches that figure, and the fair odds at 80% are only 1.25.