SportPesa Mega Jackpot prediction: 17 games, a probability for each
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
SportPesa's Mega Jackpot asks for the result of 17 games, usually played over a weekend, and pays its top prize only for a perfect coupon. Below is the current list with three numbers per game, the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win, then our pick, the double we would cover it with, and the result once the game is played. Everything is in East Africa Time, and the picks are frozen when the first game kicks off.
This week's Mega Jackpot prediction
SportPesa Mega Jackpot #203
17 matches · first kick-off 10 October 2026, 17:00 EAT · coupon open
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | Pick | Double |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Sunderland AFC – Brighton & Hove Albion · England · Premier League | 28% | 27% | 45% | 2 | 12 73% |
| 2. Ipswich Town – Fulham FC · England · Premier League | 33% | 27% | 40% | 2 | 12 73% |
| 3. Aston Villa – Brentford FC · England · Premier League | 40% | 26% | 33% | 1 | 12 74% |
| 4. FC Lorient – Paris FC · France · Ligue 1 | 34% | 28% | 38% | 2 | 12 72% |
| 5. Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest · England · Premier League | 36% | 29% | 35% | 1 | 12 71% |
| 6. OGC Nice – Strasbourg Alsace · France · Ligue 1 | 35% | 26% | 39% | 2 | 12 74% |
| 7. FK Teplice – SK Sigma Olomouc · Czechia · 1. Liga | 39% | 27% | 34% | 1 | 12 73% |
| 8. Gaziantep FK – Corum FK · Turkey · Super Lig | 34% | 27% | 40% | 2 | 12 73% |
| 9. US Catanzaro – Mantova 1911 · Italy · Serie B | 45% | 26% | 29% | 1 | 12 74% |
| 10. Rio Ave FC – Nacional da Madeira · Portugal · Liga Portugal | 40% | 28% | 32% | 1 | 12 72% |
| 11. FC Vaduz – FC Basel 1893 · Switzerland · Super League | 39% | 22% | 38% | 1 | 12 78% |
| 12. Excelsior Rotterdam – FC Groningen · Netherlands · Eredivisie | 39% | 26% | 35% | 1 | 12 74% |
| 13. Aalesunds FK – Sarpsborg 08 · Norway · Eliteserien | 40% | 25% | 35% | 1 | 12 75% |
| 14. Liverpool FC – Manchester City · England · Premier League | 36% | 26% | 38% | 2 | 12 74% |
| 15. FC Midtjylland – FC Copenhagen · Denmark · Superliga | 41% | 25% | 34% | 1 | 12 75% |
| 16. Cadiz CF – Sporting Gijon · Spain · LaLiga 2 | 36% | 29% | 36% | 1 | 12 71% |
| 17. Racing Santander – Valencia CF · Spain · LaLiga | 43% | 25% | 32% | 1 | 12 75% |
On average, picks like these get about 6.8 of the 17 matches right. All 17 land together about once in 6.2 million rounds, which is why the top prize is so large. Covering the 3 least certain matches (numbers 4, 5, 16) with a double raises that to about once in 820,000.
How to read the table
The bold figure is the likeliest of the three outcomes, and the pick column shows it as 1, X or 2, the way the coupon does. The double column gives the two likeliest outcomes together and their combined chance: 1X means home or draw, X2 draw or away, 12 either side to win. A game where the bold figure is under 40% is close to a lottery on its own, and the summary under the table names the weakest picks on the list.
Building your 17
Start from the picks, then decide where to spend doubles. The coupon lets you cover a limited number of games with two outcomes at a higher stake, and the best use of them is the games where our pick is least certain, not the ones you feel strongest about. Draws are the outcome most players leave out, and a draw is priced near one in four in most leagues; the numbers will tell you when a game is genuinely open.
If you have information the model lacks, such as a confirmed injury to a key player or a team resting its starters before a cup tie, change the pick. The model rates teams from their results and has never seen a team sheet.
Our Mega Jackpot record
The record starts once the first round we priced has been played.
How we pick
Each probability comes from the model described on our methodology page, blended with the bookmaker's prices with the margin removed. The other open jackpots are on the jackpot prediction page, including the midweek jackpot, and the day's single tips are on the mathematical prediction page and in the track record. A jackpot coupon is a bet like any other and can lose; stake only what you can afford. 18+ only.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: TIPSQUANT
Frequently asked questions
When is the Mega Jackpot prediction for this week ready?
As soon as SportPesa publishes the 17 games. We read the list four times a day, so the table above usually fills within a few hours of the list going up, and the picks keep updating until the first kick-off.
What are accurate Mega Jackpot predictions?
Ones whose confidence matches reality. A pick shown at 45% should land about 45 times in 100 over many rounds, and the only way to know is a public record. The table at the bottom of this page counts our correct picks for every round we have priced.
Are there sure Mega Jackpot predictions this weekend?
No. Nobody can make a 17-game coupon certain; most single picks on the list are below 50%. Any page promising otherwise is selling something. What we can give you is the best-supported call for each game and its real chance.
Are your Mega Jackpot predictions free?
Yes. Every game, probability, pick and double on this page is free to read, with no sign-up.
Why are some games marked "from the odds"?
Because our model does not rate one of the clubs yet, usually a team from a league we have not loaded or one with fewer than eight matches in our data. Those probabilities are SportPesa's own prices with the margin removed.