Football predictions that are logged, settled and shown as they are

TipsQuant is a football prediction site built around one statistical model and nothing else. Each morning the model works through the fixtures in the competitions we cover, from the Premier League and the Champions League to the FKF Premier League, the NPFL and the CAF Champions League, and gives every match a probability for every outcome. The tips you see below are the ones that cleared our confidence thresholds for the day. Nobody types them in, nobody edits them later, and every tip is logged before kick-off and settled from the final score.

No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.

Best tips today

No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.

Who this site is for

We write for readers in Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana and Zambia who bet on their phones and have had enough of prediction sites that shout. If you want a tip with a number next to it, a fair price to compare with the bookmaker's odds, and a public record of how the past month went, you are in the right place. If you want somebody to promise you a winning weekend, we are not that site.

Kick-off times on every page are shown in East Africa Time, and the site converts them to your own local time in the browser. Nigeria runs two hours behind EAT and Ghana three hours behind, so a 22:00 EAT kick-off is 20:00 in Lagos and 19:00 in Accra.

What you will find here

The site is organised by day and by market. The three day hubs are the ones most readers open first:

• Prediction for today: the full slate for today across 1X2, over/under 2.5 and both teams to score.
• Tomorrow prediction: the early view of tomorrow's fixtures, useful for planning a slip before the odds settle.
• Weekend prediction: Saturday and Sunday together, with a 5 odds accumulator built from the most probable legs.

Behind them sit the pages that keep us honest: the methodology, which explains the model in plain words, and the track record, where every tip is settled automatically whether it won or lost.

Predictions by day

• Today

  Today's full slate of match winner, goals and BTTS tips, refreshed every morning and again during the day.

• Tomorrow

  Tomorrow's match winner, goals and correct score tips, published a day early so you can plan a slip calmly.

• Weekend

  Saturday and Sunday fixtures together, with match winner tips, a 5 odds accumulator and correct scores.

• Correct score

  The most likely scorelines for today and tomorrow, with the probability of each and the fair odds that follow.

• BTTS

  Today's and tomorrow's both teams to score tips, yes and no, each with its calibrated probability.

• Over 1.5

  The matches most likely to reach two goals, today and tomorrow, with short fair odds and a high bar for entry.

• Over 2.5

  Over and under 2.5 goals for today and tomorrow, with over 3.5 alongside, every tip calibrated and logged.

• Draws

  The matches where a draw is a genuine contender today and tomorrow, with the probability and fair odds for X.

• 1X2

  The full match winner slate for today and tomorrow, home, draw and away, each with probability and fair odds.

• Banker

  The most confident single bets of the day across markets, ranked by probability, with the 90-day record beneath.

• 2 odds

  The daily 2 odds accumulator built from the fewest high-probability legs, for today and tomorrow, with its real chance.

• 5 odds

  The daily 5 odds and 3 odds accumulators, built from the fewest strong legs, with their combined probability shown.

• Straight wins

  Every straight win tip above threshold for today and tomorrow, with the probability behind each favourite.

• Mathematical

  What a mathematical football prediction really is, with today's summaries across markets and the likeliest scorelines.

• High confidence

  The three markets with the highest bars, double chance, over 1.5 and strong favourites, in one page for today.

Match winner tips for today

No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.

Today's 2 odds accumulator

No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.

Most likely correct scores today

No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.

How the model works, briefly

The engine is a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model. Every team carries an attack rating and a defence rating, and every competition has its own scoring level and home advantage. The ratings are fitted on roughly three seasons of finished matches, with recent games counting for more than old ones. From the two ratings and the competition settings the model produces a probability for every scoreline, and from the scorelines it derives the chance of a home win, a draw, an away win, over or under a goal line, both teams scoring, and the most likely correct scores.

When bookmaker odds exist for a match, the model's view is blended half and half with the market's view after the bookmaker margin is stripped out. The "fair odds" column in every table is simply one divided by the probability. A tip is printed only when the probability clears a threshold for that market, so a quiet day can produce a short list. That is by design.

A tip is a probability, not a promise

A 70% tip loses three times in ten, and sometimes those three losses come in a row. Any bet can lose, and no model, ours included, can see a late injury, a rotated squad or a referee having a strange evening. Treat every table on this site as information for your own decision, stake only what you can afford to lose, and read our responsible gambling page if betting ever stops feeling like entertainment. The site is for adults aged 18+ only.

How the tips have done over the last 30 days

Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.