Premier League predictions: this week's EPL fixtures, table and model tips
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
The Premier League is the competition most readers in Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana and Zambia bet on first, and it is also one the model handles with the most data: twenty clubs, 38 rounds, three seasons of results behind every rating and a steady flow of matches against European opposition that keep the English ratings tied to the rest of the data. This page is the league's home on the site. The fixtures for the next seven days come with the model's 1/X/2 probabilities, the table sits below them, and the tips that cleared our thresholds are filtered to EPL matches only.
Premier League fixtures in the next seven days
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
What the probabilities are telling you
The three numbers beside each fixture add up to 100% and come from the same grid of scorelines as every other market on the site. In the Premier League the home advantage is real but smaller than in many leagues, and the gap between the top and the bottom of the table is wide, so you will often see a favourite in the high sixties or seventies away from home and a near three-way split between two mid-table sides. Fair odds are one divided by the probability. When the bookmaker is paying more than the fair odds the price is on your side; when it pays less you are paying for the favourite's name.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 | WLDWW |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | WDDDW |
| 5 | Leeds | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | WDDWD |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | DDWDW |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | WDDDW |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WWDDL |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | DWDLW |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 | WWLDL |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 | WLLWL |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | LWDLD |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 | LDDWL |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 | LWDLL |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 | LLDLW |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 | LDDDL |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 | LLDDL |
The tips that cleared the thresholds
Three filtered tables follow: match result, over and under 2.5 goals, and both teams to score. A fixture only appears when its probability clears the market's threshold, which is 55% for a favourite, 60% for over 2.5, 62% for under 2.5 and 58% or 62% for GG and NG. On a quiet midweek with no EPL fixtures the tables are empty, and that is correct behaviour rather than a fault.
EPL match result tips for the week
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
EPL over and under 2.5 goals tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
EPL both teams to score tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Most likely Premier League correct scores
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
What moves an EPL match away from its number
Team news comes first, as everywhere, but the Premier League adds two things the model cannot see. Midweek European football leaves the top sides playing Saturday with tired legs or a rotated eleven, and the model only notices once the results change. And the calendar in December and early January packs matches closer together than in any other league we cover, which flattens the usual gap between strong and weak sides for a few weeks. Treat the probabilities in those periods as slightly less sharp than usual.
How we pick, and how to read this page
Every number here comes from the Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model described on the methodology page, with the goals markets calibrated and, where bookmaker odds are available, blended half and half with the odds after the margin is removed. The weekly view of all leagues is on the weekend prediction page, and the over 2.5 predictions page covers the goals market in depth. Kick-off times are shown in East Africa Time and converted to your local time.
Any bet can lose, however strong the favourite looks, and the Premier League produces upsets every round. Stake what you can afford, bet only if you are aged 18+, and read our responsible gambling page before opening an account.
How the tips have done over the last 30 days, all leagues
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: MEGAGLOBAL
Frequently asked questions
When are the EPL predictions for this weekend published?
The fixtures table always shows the next seven days, so the weekend's matches are priced from the Monday before. The probabilities are refitted every morning and again during the day as results arrive, so the Saturday view is the most up to date.
Do you have Premier League predictions for today?
On a matchday, yes: the tables below are filtered to Premier League matches in the next seven days, and today's games appear at the top. The prediction for today page shows the same tips alongside every other competition.
How do these differ from a pundit's EPL predictions this weekend?
A pundit watches the games and guesses the score. Our model fits attack and defence ratings on three seasons of results and gives you a probability for each outcome instead of a single guess. It knows nothing about team news, so it is a starting point to add your own reading to, not a replacement for it.
What time are Premier League kick-offs in East Africa?
The standard Saturday 15:00 kick-off in England is 17:00 EAT during British summer time and 18:00 EAT in winter. Nigeria is two hours behind EAT and Ghana three, so the same match starts at 15:00 or 16:00 in Lagos and 14:00 or 15:00 in Accra. The site converts each kick-off to your local time.
Why does a newly promoted team have no tips?
Teams with fewer than eight matches in our data get no tips. Promoted sides have no top-flight results to rate, so they sit out the first weeks of the season until the model has seen enough of them.