Serie A predictions: Italy's week of fixtures with probabilities, goals tips and likely scores
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Serie A is the league where our model's goals markets are tested hardest, because Italian football has spent recent seasons producing fewer goals per match than the other major European leagues in our data. That shapes everything on this page: the under side of the 2.5 line appears more often, the both-teams-to-score "no" clears its threshold more often, and the correct score table concentrates on a handful of low scorelines. The fixtures for the next seven days are listed first with 1/X/2 probabilities, the table follows, and every tip below is filtered to Serie A.
Serie A fixtures in the next seven days
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
The shape of an Italian match in the model
Each competition in the model has its own scoring level and home advantage, fitted on the last three seasons of results and weighted towards recent games. For Italy the scoring level pulls every fixture's expected goals down a little, which means two things when you read the probabilities. First, a favourite needs a bigger rating gap to reach the 55% that a match result tip requires, because low-scoring matches end level more often. Second, the under 2.5 and NG columns are where Italian fixtures most often clear a threshold. The both teams to score today page explains the GG and NG thresholds in detail.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | WLWWW |
| 5 | AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | WWDDW |
| 6 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | LWWDW |
| 7 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | WWDLW |
| 8 | Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | DWWWL |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | WLLWD |
| 10 | US Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | LWDWL |
| 11 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 | WWLLL |
| 12 | US Lecce | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 | WLLWL |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 | DWLLL |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 | LLDLW |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 | LLDLW |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 | LLLWD |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 | LLDLD |
| 19 | Genoa CFC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 | LLLDL |
| 20 | Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
This week's Serie A tips
Serie A match result tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Serie A under and over 2.5 goals tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Serie A GG and NG tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Most likely Serie A correct scores
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
What the ratings miss in Italy
Italian sides change shape with their coach more than most, and a managerial change mid-season moves a team faster than the model's eight-month half-life can follow. Fixtures late in the season between teams with nothing to play for, and derbies where form counts for little, are the two situations where Serie A results have most often surprised a results-only model. Check the context before backing a short-priced under in either case.
How we pick, and where to read more
The model behind these numbers is the Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model used across the site, with the goals markets calibrated so that a published 65% lands about 65% of the time, and a 50/50 blend with bookmaker odds where those odds are available. The methodology page explains the fitting, the calibration and every threshold. For the under and over markets across all leagues, the over 2.5 predictions page is the hub; for scorelines, the correct score prediction page.
Any bet can lose, and in a low-scoring league one deflected shot settles the under and the result at once. Keep stakes to money you can spare, bet only if you are aged 18+, and see the responsible gambling page for limit-setting tools.
Thirty days of settled tips across every competition
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: MEGAGLOBAL
Frequently asked questions
Is an Italy Serie A prediction usually an under?
Not usually, but more often than in Germany or England. Serie A's scoring level in the model has been modest in recent seasons, so under 2.5 clears its 62% threshold more frequently here than in most leagues. Each match is still priced on its own two teams.
What time do Serie A matches kick off in EAT?
Italian fixtures run from Friday evening to Monday evening. Common slots are 16:00, 19:00 and 21:45 EAT during European summer time, an hour later in winter. Nigeria is two hours behind EAT, Ghana three.
Why is the correct score table useful for Italy?
When goals are scarce the probability concentrates on a few scorelines, so a 1-0 or 1-1 in Serie A can carry a noticeably higher probability than the top score in a Bundesliga match. The scores table shows that concentration directly.
Do you have Serie A predictions for every round?
Every fixture in the next seven days is priced, so every round appears in turn. Tips are a different matter: they are printed only above the thresholds, so some rounds carry many and some very few.
Can I use these Italy Serie A predictions on a cup match?
No. Only league fixtures appear here. Cup matches in Italy are not in our covered list, and matches decided in extra time are void in our settlement anyway.