Prediction for today: every tip with its probability and fair odds
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
This page is the day's full slate in one place. Three tables sit below: match winner tips, over or under 2.5 goals, and both teams to score. Each row shows the model's probability and the fair odds that follow from it, so you can hold the number next to the price your bookmaker is offering and decide for yourself. Everything is rebuilt automatically, first in the morning and again during the day, and nothing in the tables is written by hand.
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
How to read today's tables
The probability column is the model's estimate; where bookmaker odds are available for a match, it is blended with them after the margin is removed. A 62% home win means the model expects that result a little less than two times in three. Fair odds are one divided by that probability, so 62% becomes 1.61. When a bookmaker offers more than the fair odds, the price is in your favour on paper. When it offers less, you are paying for the favourite's name.
Three things are worth remembering before you pick anything from the list:
- A short list is a normal list. On a weekday with few fixtures, two or three tips can be the whole slate.
- The tables are sorted by probability, not by odds. The top of the table is the safest-looking tip, not the most profitable one.
- Kick-off times are in East Africa Time. The site converts them to your local time in the browser, and if you are in Lagos or Accra remember the two-hour and three-hour difference.
Match winner predictions for today
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Goals markets today
Over or under 2.5 goals is where the model earns its keep, because the whole model is built on expected goals for each side. A tip appears for over 2.5 only when the probability reaches 60%, and for under 2.5 only at 62%. Those thresholds are deliberately different: low-scoring matches are harder to call, since a single deflection turns a 1-0 into a 1-1 and then into anything.
Over and under 2.5 goals predictions for today
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Both teams to score follows the same logic. "Yes" needs 58% and "no" needs 62% before it is printed. A match with one strong attack and one weak defence is often a better over 2.5 pick than a BTTS pick, so do not be surprised when a fixture appears in one table but not the other.
Both teams to score predictions for today
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
What can change between now and kick-off
The model works from finished results and from odds. It cannot read a team sheet. A rested striker, a goalkeeper left out, a dead-rubber fixture at the end of the season, heavy rain in Nairobi or Kumasi, or a third match in seven days: all of these move the real probability and none of them are visible to the numbers. When you have that kind of information, use it. The table is the starting point, not the final word.
How we pick, in one paragraph
Every team has an attack and a defence rating fitted on roughly three seasons of results, with recent games weighted more heavily. Each competition has its own scoring level and home advantage. The model turns those ratings into a probability for every scoreline, derives the markets from that, blends the result with the bookmaker's implied probabilities where odds are available, and prints a tip only above the threshold for its market. The full explanation, including what the model cannot see, is on the methodology page, and the track record shows how the tips have actually done.
Before you bet
Any bet can lose, including the one at the top of the table with the highest probability. Decide your stake before you look at the odds, keep it to money you can afford to lose, and if you are planning for the weekend rather than today, the weekend prediction page is built for that. The site is for adults aged 18+ only; our responsible gambling page explains the limits you can set.
The last 30 days of settled tips
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: MEGAGLOBAL
Frequently asked questions
What time are today's football predictions published?
The model runs every morning East Africa Time and the tables are rebuilt again during the day as odds and team news move. A match that had no tip at breakfast can gain one by lunchtime if its probability crosses the threshold.
Are these the best football tips for today?
They are the most probable outcomes according to our model, which is not the same as the biggest odds. The highest-probability tips are usually short prices on favourites. If you want value rather than safety, compare the fair odds column with the bookmaker's price.
Why does a match in today's fixtures have no prediction?
Either no outcome reached the threshold for its market, or one of the teams has fewer than eight matches in our data. Newly promoted sides and clubs in the early weeks of a season often fall into the second group.
Do today's predictions cover the Kenyan and Nigerian leagues?
Not yet. The FKF Premier League, the NPFL, the Ghana Premier League and the Zambia Super League will join the tables as soon as a reliable fixtures feed for them is connected. Today the African leagues covered are the Uganda Premier League, the NBC Premier League in Tanzania, South Africa's Premiership and the CAF club competitions.
Can I bet on today's predictions with any bookmaker?
The probabilities do not depend on any bookmaker, but the odds you get do. Our recommended bookmaker is MegaPari, and the link on this page takes you to the current offer. You are free to compare its prices with the fair odds shown here.