La Liga predictions: Spain's fixtures for the week with the model's probabilities
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
La Liga pays its own kind of attention. The two biggest clubs in Spain win far more often than they lose, and the model reflects that with some of the shortest fair odds anywhere on the site; below them sits a long middle of the table where draws are common and the home side is favoured by a wider margin than in England. This page carries the Spanish top flight's fixtures for the next seven days with 1/X/2 probabilities, the current standings, and the goals and result tips that passed our thresholds for Spanish matches only.
La Liga fixtures in the next seven days
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Reading the Spanish probabilities
Spain's scoring level in the model has, in recent seasons, sat a little below the Bundesliga's and a little above Serie A's, so the goals probabilities are rarely extreme in either direction: plenty of fixtures land near the 50% mark on over 2.5, and comparatively few clear the 60% needed for a tip. The draw probability in mid-table fixtures often reaches the high twenties, which is close to the 31% a draw tip needs. The draw prediction page explains how the model decides when two sides are close enough.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Espanyol | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | LWWWD |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 | WLWWL |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | LDWWL |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | WWLLD |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WWDLD |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | LLLWW |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | LWWDD |
| 11 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | LDDLW |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 | LWLWD |
| 13 | CA Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 | WLLLD |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | LDDDW |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 | WLWLL |
| 17 | Levante UD | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 | DWDLL |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 | LLDLW |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 | LLLWL |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 | LDDLL |
Match result, goals and GG tips for Spain
La Liga match result tips this week
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
La Liga over and under 2.5 goals tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
La Liga both teams to score tips
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
A short list is normal. The model prints a tip only above its threshold for each market, so a week with two Spanish fixtures involving the top clubs may carry two or three tips, and a week of evenly matched games may carry none. Empty is honest; a padded list would not be.
Most likely La Liga correct scores
No matches meet our criteria for this day yet. The list refreshes every morning and again before kick-off.
Beyond the numbers
Spanish schedules move: a kick-off can be confirmed only a few weeks before the match, and the fixtures table reflects the latest known time at the morning refresh. Lineups matter more than usual at the top clubs, which rotate heavily around European midweeks. Late Sunday and Monday fixtures are played in front of thin away support and the home advantage the model estimates for Spain reflects a long history of that. None of these is in the model; all of them are worth checking before you follow a tip.
How we pick these tips
The same Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model prices every league on the site. For Spain it uses roughly three seasons of top-flight results, weighted towards recent matches, with the Spanish clubs' European fixtures tying the ratings to the rest of the data. Goals markets are calibrated; where bookmaker odds exist the model's figure is blended with the market. The methodology page has the full description and every threshold. For the same matches in the context of the whole day, use the prediction for today and tomorrow prediction pages.
Any bet can lose. The late Spanish kick-offs make it easy to chase a losing afternoon into the night; set a stake before the first match and keep to it. Betting is for adults aged 18+ only. Our responsible gambling page explains the limits you can set.
Settled tips over the last 30 days, all competitions
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: MEGAGLOBAL
Frequently asked questions
Why are La Liga kick-offs so late in East Africa?
Spanish matches are spread from Friday to Monday and the evening games start at 21:00 local time, which is 22:00 EAT, with the latest at 23:00 EAT. In Nigeria that is 20:00 and 21:00; in Ghana 19:00 and 20:00. The fixtures table shows the time in EAT and converts it for you.
Is a Spain La Liga prediction more reliable for the top two clubs?
The model is more confident, not more reliable, about strong favourites: a 75% tip still loses one time in four. The two dominant clubs produce short fair odds, and the question is whether the bookmaker is paying more than that figure, not whether the result is certain.
Does the model cover the Spanish second division?
No. Only the competitions in our covered list have data today, and for Spain that is the top flight. If and when the second division is added, it will appear in the fixtures and tips automatically.
How is a Spain prediction settled if the match goes to extra time?
La Liga matches cannot go to extra time, so every tip here is settled on the 90-minute score plus stoppage time. For cup competitions, matches decided in extra time or on penalties are void.