Midweek jackpot prediction: SportPesa's 13 games, each with its chance
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
SportPesa's Midweek Jackpot is the shorter of its two coupons: 13 games, one result to call in each. The list tends to reach further than the weekend coupon, into lower divisions and leagues most of us do not follow week to week, so knowing how open each game really is matters more here. The table gives the chance of each result, our pick and its double, and fills in the results after the games.
This week's midweek jackpot prediction
SportPesa Midweek Jackpot
13 matches · first kick-off 9 October 2026, 19:00 EAT · coupon open
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | Pick | Double |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Haka – PK-35 · Finland · from the odds | 42% | 27% | 32% | 1 | 12 73% |
| 2. Eintracht Braunschweig – Holstein Kiel · Germany | 36% | 25% | 38% | 2 | 12 75% |
| 3. Arsenal Tula – Spartak Kostroma · Russia · from the odds | 35% | 29% | 36% | 2 | 12 71% |
| 4. Brann – Viking · Norway | 32% | 24% | 44% | 2 | 12 76% |
| 5. Umraniyespor – Sariyer · Turkey | 37% | 30% | 33% | 1 | 12 70% |
| 6. Aldosivi – Sarmiento · Argentina | 36% | 30% | 34% | 1 | 12 70% |
| 7. Dunkerque – Annecy FC · France | 40% | 26% | 33% | 1 | 12 74% |
| 8. FC Oss – Helmond Sport · Netherlands | 46% | 26% | 28% | 1 | 12 74% |
| 9. Dordrecht – FC Emmen · Netherlands | 36% | 24% | 40% | 2 | 12 76% |
| 10. Avellino – Sampdoria · Italy | 40% | 29% | 31% | 1 | 12 71% |
| 11. Lens – Lyon · France | 40% | 26% | 34% | 1 | 12 74% |
| 12. Cobh Ramblers – Kerry FC · Ireland · from the odds | 41% | 27% | 31% | 1 | 12 73% |
| 13. Malaga – Espanyol · Spain | 38% | 29% | 33% | 1 | 12 71% |
On average, picks like these get about 5.2 of the 13 matches right. All 13 land together about once in 160,000 rounds, which is why the top prize is so large. Covering the 3 least certain matches (numbers 3, 5, 6) with a double raises that to about once in 22,000.
“From the odds” marks a match with a club our model does not rate yet: its probabilities are SportPesa's own prices with the margin removed, not a model forecast.
Kick-off times are in East Africa Time. Games marked "from the odds" involve a club our model does not rate yet, and their numbers are the organiser's prices with the margin removed.
Reading a midweek list
A typical midweek coupon has a handful of games with a clear favourite and several that are close to even. The first group is where the pick does most of the work; the second is where a double earns its stake. Look at the bold figure: a pick at 50% or more is a real favourite, one in the high thirties is a game where any of the three results would surprise no one.
Lower-league games also carry more uncertainty than the numbers show, because squads change quickly and results data is thinner. Treat a 45% pick from a second division with a little more caution than the same figure from a top flight.
Thirteen is still a lot
Fewer games make a perfect coupon less unlikely, not likely. The summary under the table puts the chance of all 13 picks landing into plain numbers, and shows how much covering the weakest games with doubles improves it.
Our midweek jackpot record
The record starts once the first round we priced has been played.
How we pick
The model and its limits are set out on the methodology page. The weekend coupon is on the SportPesa Mega Jackpot prediction page, Betika's lists are on the Betika jackpot prediction page, and the day's single tips are under the prediction for today. Settled tips live in the track record. Any bet can lose, so play only with money you can afford to lose. 18+ only.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: TIPSQUANT
Frequently asked questions
Is there a midweek jackpot prediction for this week?
Yes, once SportPesa has published the list. The table above shows the current 13 games as soon as our next update reads them, and the picks stay open to changes until the first game kicks off.
What is a mathematical midweek jackpot prediction?
A prediction where every pick comes with a computed probability rather than an opinion. For games between clubs our model rates, the probability is the model's, blended with the bookmaker's prices; for the rest it is SportPesa's own prices with the margin removed, and the table says which is which.
Why does the midweek list have so many games from smaller leagues?
That is how the organiser builds it. Midweek lists often mix lower divisions and leagues from Scandinavia, South America and Ireland, which is also why more of its games are marked "from the odds" than on the Mega Jackpot.
Is there a sure midweek jackpot prediction?
No. With 13 games and most picks under 50%, a perfect coupon is a long shot for everyone. Our numbers show you how long, game by game.
Where is the Betika midweek jackpot?
On its own page, the Betika jackpot prediction, together with Betika's Must Be Won list.