Premier League
Arsenal vs Leeds prediction: Premier League, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Arsenal host Leeds in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 14:30 EAT. The match is played at Emirates (London). Arsenal are 2nd in the table with 12 points from 5 games; Leeds are 5th with 9.
Our tips for this match
- Arsenal to win · 65% · Fair odds 1.53 · MegaPari 1.44
- Arsenal or draw · 87% · Fair odds 1.15 · MegaPari 1.09
- Under 3.5 goals · 77% · Fair odds 1.31 · MegaPari 1.36
Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds?
The model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 22% and Leeds at 13%. MegaPari's 1.44 on Arsenal is shorter than our fair price of 1.53: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Arsenal to win (65%), Arsenal or draw (87%) and under 3.5 goals (77%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to win Tip | 65% | 1.53 | 1.44 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.52 | 5.03 |
| Leeds to win | 13% | 7.88 | 8.20 |
| Arsenal or draw Tip | 87% | 1.15 | 1.09 |
| Draw or Leeds | 35% | 2.87 | 3.02 |
| Arsenal or Leeds | 78% | 1.28 | 1.21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 | 2.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 77% | 1.31 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | 2.14 | 1.99 |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | 1.87 | 1.75 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Arsenal vs Leeds
Expected goals are 1.7 for Arsenal and 0.6 for Leeds, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 47%.
Arsenal vs Leeds correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 16%, ahead of 2-0 (14%) and 1-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 16.4% | 6.11 |
| 2-0 | 13.9% | 7.17 |
| 1-1 | 11.0% | 9.08 |
| 0-0 | 10.5% | 9.50 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
Form: Arsenal and Leeds in their last five
Arsenal have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Leeds are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 7 goals scored and 3 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Arsenal: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Brighton (away)Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Sunderland (away)Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Napoli (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Chelsea (home)Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Aston Villa (away)Premier League | 1-0 | W |
Leeds: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Crystal Palace (home)Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Newcastle (home)Premier League | 4-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Brighton (away)Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Brentford (home)Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Nottingham Forest (away)Premier League | 1-0 | W |
Arsenal vs Leeds head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Arsenal won 2, Leeds won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 31 January 2026, finished Leeds 0–4 Arsenal.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Leeds – ArsenalPremier League | 0-4 |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Arsenal – LeedsPremier League | 5-0 |
The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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