UEFA Champions League
Arsenal vs Lille prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 13 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Arsenal host Lille in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Emirates (London). Arsenal are 15th in the table with 3 points from 1 games; Lille are 22nd with 0.
Our tips for this match
- Arsenal to win · 74% · Fair odds 1.36 · MegaPari 1.30
- Arsenal or draw · 92% · Fair odds 1.08 · MegaPari 1.03
Who will win Arsenal vs Lille?
The model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 74%, with the draw at 19% and Lille at 8%. MegaPari's 1.30 on Arsenal is shorter than our fair price of 1.36: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Arsenal to win (74%) and Arsenal or draw (92%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to win Tip | 74% | 1.36 | 1.30 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.39 | 5.81 |
| Lille to win | 8% | 12.85 | 13.80 |
| Arsenal or draw Tip | 92% | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| Draw or Lille | 26% | 3.80 | 3.92 |
| Arsenal or Lille | 81% | 1.23 | 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.87 | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.15 | 2.40 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.56 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | 2.25 | 2.11 |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | 1.80 | 1.66 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Arsenal vs Lille
Expected goals are 1.9 for Arsenal and 0.5 for Lille, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 44%.
Arsenal vs Lille correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 16%, ahead of 2-0 (16%) and 3-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 16.4% | 6.11 |
| 2-0 | 16.2% | 6.16 |
| 3-0 | 10.5% | 9.51 |
| 0-0 | 8.9% | 11.17 |
| 1-1 | 8.9% | 11.27 |
Form: Arsenal and Lille in their last five
Arsenal have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Lille have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Arsenal: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Brighton (away)Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Sunderland (away)Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Napoli (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Chelsea (home)Premier League | 2-1 | W |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Aston Villa (away)Premier League | 1-0 | W |
Lille: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Nice (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Troyes (home)Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Real Betis (home)UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Toulouse (away)Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| 28 Aug 2026 | PSG (home)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Arsenal vs Lille head to head
Arsenal and Lille have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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