Premier League
Aston Villa vs Brentford prediction: Premier League, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Aston Villa host Brentford in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Villa Park (Birmingham). Aston Villa are 16th in the table with 4 points from 5 games; Brentford are 4th with 9.
Our tips for this match
- Both teams to score: yes · 58% · Fair odds 1.72 · MegaPari 1.54
Who will win Aston Villa vs Brentford?
There is little to separate the sides: Aston Villa 40%, the draw 26%, Brentford 33%. MegaPari pays 2.73 on Aston Villa, more than our fair price of 2.48.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (58%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win | 40% | 2.48 | 2.73 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | 3.59 |
| Brentford to win | 33% | 3.01 | 2.70 |
| Aston Villa or draw | 67% | 1.50 | 1.53 |
| Draw or Brentford | 60% | 1.68 | 1.52 |
| Aston Villa or Brentford | 74% | 1.36 | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.23 | 2.23 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 58% | 1.72 | 1.54 |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | 2.39 | 2.35 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Aston Villa vs Brentford
Expected goals are 1.6 for Aston Villa and 1.3 for Brentford, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 58%.
Aston Villa vs Brentford correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.45 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
| 1-0 | 8.4% | 11.93 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 13.62 |
| 2-0 | 7.2% | 13.97 |
Form: Aston Villa and Brentford in their last five
Aston Villa have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Brentford are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 10 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Aston Villa: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Tottenham (away)Premier League | 3-2 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Nottingham Forest (home)Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Club Brugge (away)UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Hull City (away)Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Arsenal (home)Premier League | 0-1 | L |
Brentford: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Chelsea (home)Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Bournemouth (away)Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Sunderland (home)Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Leeds (away)Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Tottenham (home)Premier League | 3-0 | W |
Aston Villa vs Brentford head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Aston Villa won 3, Brentford won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 1 February 2026, finished Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Aston Villa – BrentfordPremier League | 0-1 |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Brentford – Aston VillaPremier League | 1-0 |
| 8 Mar 2025 | Brentford – Aston VillaPremier League | 0-1 |
| 4 Dec 2024 | Aston Villa – BrentfordPremier League | 3-1 |
| 6 Apr 2024 | Aston Villa – BrentfordPremier League | 3-3 |
| 17 Dec 2023 | Brentford – Aston VillaPremier League | 1-2 |
How the odds have moved
MegaPari's price on Aston Villa has drifted from 2.72 to 2.73 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.74 to 1.76, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win | 2.72 | 2.73 ↑ |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.59 ↓ |
| Brentford to win | 2.69 | 2.70 ↑ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 1.76 ↑ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.23 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.53 | 1.54 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.37 | 2.35 ↓ |
Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: TIPSQUANT