Serie A
Atalanta vs Venezia prediction: Serie A, Monday 12 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Atalanta host Venezia in Serie A on Monday 12 October, kick-off 19:30 EAT. The match is played at New Balance Arena (Bergamo). Atalanta are 11th in the table with 6 points from 5 games; Venezia are 20th with 0.
Our tips for this match
- Atalanta to win · 60% · Fair odds 1.66 · MegaPari 1.66
- Atalanta or draw · 83% · Fair odds 1.20 · MegaPari 1.18
Who will win Atalanta vs Venezia?
The model makes Atalanta clear favourites at 60%, with the draw at 23% and Venezia at 17%. MegaPari's 1.66 on Atalanta sits right on our fair price of 1.66.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Atalanta to win (60%) and Atalanta or draw (83%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta to win Tip | 60% | 1.66 | 1.66 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | 4.17 |
| Venezia to win | 17% | 5.97 | 5.72 |
| Atalanta or draw Tip | 83% | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| Draw or Venezia | 40% | 2.51 | 2.35 |
| Atalanta or Venezia | 77% | 1.30 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.32 | 2.42 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 | 1.66 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.80 | 1.58 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.25 | 2.26 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Atalanta vs Venezia
Expected goals are 1.9 for Atalanta and 0.9 for Venezia, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Atalanta vs Venezia correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 11%, ahead of 2-0 (11%) and 1-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 11.2% | 8.91 |
| 2-0 | 11.2% | 8.95 |
| 1-1 | 10.7% | 9.35 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.13 |
| 3-0 | 7.1% | 13.99 |
Form: Atalanta and Venezia in their last five
Atalanta have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Venezia have not won in 5 (0 draws, 5 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Atalanta: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Juventus (away)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Cagliari (home)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Roma (away)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Bologna (home)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv (away)UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
Venezia: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Lazio (home)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Fiorentina (home)Serie A | 2-4 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Frosinone (away)Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| 28 Aug 2026 | AC Milan (away)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 23 Aug 2026 | US Lecce (home)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
Atalanta vs Venezia head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Atalanta won 1, Venezia won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 1 March 2025, finished Atalanta 0–0 Venezia.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2025 | Atalanta – VeneziaSerie A | 0-0 |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Venezia – AtalantaSerie A | 0-2 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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