UEFA Champions League
Atlético Madrid vs Man United prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 13 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Atlético Madrid host Man United in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Metropolitano (Madrid). Atlético Madrid are 26th in the table with 0 points from 1 games; Man United are 4th with 3.
Our tips for this match
- Over 1.5 goals · 81% · Fair odds 1.24 · MegaPari 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals · 62% · Fair odds 1.63 · MegaPari 1.45
- Both teams to score: yes · 62% · Fair odds 1.61 · MegaPari 1.42
Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Man United?
There is little to separate the sides: Atlético Madrid 44%, the draw 24%, Man United 32%. MegaPari's 2.31 on Atlético Madrid sits right on our fair price of 2.27.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (81%), over 2.5 goals (62%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid to win | 44% | 2.27 | 2.31 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | 3.96 |
| Man United to win | 32% | 3.15 | 3.03 |
| Atlético Madrid or draw | 68% | 1.46 | 1.44 |
| Draw or Man United | 56% | 1.79 | 1.69 |
| Atlético Madrid or Man United | 76% | 1.32 | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.24 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 62% | 1.63 | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.60 | 2.51 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.60 | 1.73 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 62% | 1.61 | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | 2.65 | 2.69 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Atlético Madrid vs Man United
Goals are expected: 1.8 for Atlético Madrid and 1.5 for Man United, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 62%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.
Atlético Madrid vs Man United correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.4% | 9.62 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 11.03 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 13.64 |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | 15.02 |
| 1-0 | 6.4% | 15.62 |
Form: Atlético Madrid and Man United in their last five
Atlético Madrid have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. Man United have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. The results cover every competition in our data.
Atlético Madrid: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Real Madrid (home)LaLiga | 2-1 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | CA Osasuna (home)LaLiga | 4-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Real Sociedad (away)LaLiga | 3-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Liverpool (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Athletic Bilbao (away)LaLiga | 0-3 | L |
Man United: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Fulham (away)Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Man City (home)Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Sabah (home)UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Everton (away)Premier League | 2-2 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Ipswich Town (home)Premier League | 5-2 | W |
Atlético Madrid vs Man United head to head
Atlético Madrid and Man United have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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