Bundesliga
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Augsburg host Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at WWK Arena (Augsburg). Augsburg are 4th in the table with 7 points from 4 games; Bayern Munich are 2nd with 10.
Our tips for this match
- Bayern Munich to win · 79% · Fair odds 1.27 · MegaPari 1.21
- Draw or Bayern Munich · 91% · Fair odds 1.10 · MegaPari 1.06
- Over 1.5 goals · 87% · Fair odds 1.15 · MegaPari 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals · 76% · Fair odds 1.31 · MegaPari 1.09
- Both teams to score: yes · 62% · Fair odds 1.61 · MegaPari 1.41
Who will win Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
The model makes Bayern Munich clear favourites at 79%, with the draw at 12% and Augsburg at 9%. MegaPari's 1.21 on Bayern Munich is shorter than our fair price of 1.27: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Bayern Munich to win (79%), draw or Bayern Munich (91%), over 1.5 goals (87%), over 2.5 goals (76%) and both teams to score: yes (62%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg to win | 9% | 11.29 | 12.30 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.22 | 9.05 |
| Bayern Munich to win Tip | 79% | 1.27 | 1.21 |
| Augsburg or draw | 21% | 4.76 | 4.96 |
| Draw or Bayern Munich Tip | 91% | 1.10 | 1.06 |
| Augsburg or Bayern Munich | 88% | 1.14 | 1.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 87% | 1.15 | 1.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 76% | 1.31 | 1.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24% | 4.22 | 5.30 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 | 2.80 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 62% | 1.61 | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | 2.64 | 2.73 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
Goals are expected: 1.1 for Augsburg and 3.1 for Bayern Munich, 4.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 76%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 62%.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-3 at 8%, ahead of 1-2 (8%) and 0-3 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 12 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | 8.2% | 12.18 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.53 |
| 0-3 | 7.6% | 13.21 |
| 0-2 | 7.4% | 13.59 |
| 1-4 | 6.3% | 15.80 |
Form: Augsburg and Bayern Munich in their last five
Augsburg have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 19 goals scored and 2 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Augsburg: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | SV Werder Bremen (away)Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Leverkusen (home)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt (away)Bundesliga | 4-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Schalke 04 (home)Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
| 16 May 2026 | Union Berlin (away)Bundesliga | 0-4 | L |
Bayern Munich: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Union Berlin (home)Bundesliga | 7-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | SV 07 Elversberg (away)Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Bodø/Glimt (home)UEFA Champions League | 5-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Schalke 04 (away)Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| 28 Aug 2026 | VfB Stuttgart (home)Bundesliga | 5-1 | W |
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Augsburg won 1, Bayern Munich won 4 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 24 January 2026, finished Bayern Munich 1–2 Augsburg.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Bayern Munich – AugsburgBundesliga | 1-2 |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Augsburg – Bayern MunichBundesliga | 2-3 |
| 4 Apr 2025 | Augsburg – Bayern MunichBundesliga | 1-3 |
| 22 Nov 2024 | Bayern Munich – AugsburgBundesliga | 3-0 |
| 27 Jan 2024 | Augsburg – Bayern MunichBundesliga | 2-3 |
The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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