Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen prediction: Bundesliga, Friday 9 October

Borussia Dortmund host SV Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on Friday 9 October, kick-off 21:30 EAT. The match is played at Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund). Borussia Dortmund are 1st in the table with 12 points from 4 games; SV Werder Bremen are 8th with 7.

Our tips for this match

• Borussia Dortmund to win · 72% · Fair odds 1.40 · MegaPari 1.41
• Borussia Dortmund or draw · 88% · Fair odds 1.13 · MegaPari 1.10
• Over 1.5 goals · 81% · Fair odds 1.23 · MegaPari 1.07
• Over 2.5 goals · 64% · Fair odds 1.55 · MegaPari 1.35

Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen?

The model makes Borussia Dortmund clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 17% and SV Werder Bremen at 12%. MegaPari's 1.41 on Borussia Dortmund sits right on our fair price of 1.40.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Borussia Dortmund to win (72%), Borussia Dortmund or draw (88%), over 1.5 goals (81%) and over 2.5 goals (64%).

Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen

Goals are expected: 2.5 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.8 for SV Werder Bremen, 3.4 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 64%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-0 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 3-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Borussia Dortmund and SV Werder Bremen in their last five

Borussia Dortmund have won all of their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 4. SV Werder Bremen have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Borussia Dortmund: last five matches

SV Werder Bremen: last five matches

Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Borussia Dortmund won 4, SV Werder Bremen won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 16 May 2026, finished SV Werder Bremen 0–2 Borussia Dortmund.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.