Serie A
Cagliari vs Juventus prediction: Serie A, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Cagliari host Juventus in Serie A on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Unipol Domus (Cagliari). Cagliari are 4th in the table with 12 points from 5 games; Juventus are 7th with 10.
Our tips for this match
- Juventus to win · 58% · Fair odds 1.74 · MegaPari 1.62
- Draw or Juventus · 83% · Fair odds 1.21 · MegaPari 1.15
Who will win Cagliari vs Juventus?
Juventus are favourites, though not by much: 58% to win, 25% for the draw and 17% for Cagliari. MegaPari's 1.62 on Juventus is shorter than our fair price of 1.74: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Juventus to win (58%) and draw or Juventus (83%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari to win | 17% | 5.81 | 6.54 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | 4.09 |
| Juventus to win Tip | 58% | 1.74 | 1.62 |
| Cagliari or draw | 42% | 2.35 | 2.46 |
| Draw or Juventus Tip | 83% | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| Cagliari or Juventus | 75% | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.12 | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | 1.88 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | 2.09 | 2.02 |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | 1.92 | 1.72 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Cagliari vs Juventus
Expected goals are 0.8 for Cagliari and 1.6 for Juventus, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 47%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 48%.
Cagliari vs Juventus correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 0-2 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 14.0% | 7.15 |
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.10 |
| 0-2 | 11.2% | 8.91 |
| 0-0 | 9.8% | 10.21 |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
Form: Cagliari and Juventus in their last five
Cagliari have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Juventus have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +8. The results cover every competition in our data.
Cagliari: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Udinese (away)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Atalanta (away)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 7 Sep 2026 | US Lecce (home)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Inter (home)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Parma (away)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
Juventus: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Atalanta (home)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| 17 Sep 2026 | NEC (home)UEFA Europa League | 5-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | US Sassuolo (away)Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | AC Milan (home)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Parma (home)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
Cagliari vs Juventus head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Cagliari won 1, Juventus won 3 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 17 January 2026, finished Cagliari 1–0 Juventus.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | Cagliari – JuventusSerie A | 1-0 |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Juventus – CagliariSerie A | 2-1 |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Cagliari – JuventusSerie A | 0-1 |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Juventus – CagliariSerie A | 1-1 |
| 19 Apr 2024 | Cagliari – JuventusSerie A | 2-2 |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Juventus – CagliariSerie A | 2-1 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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