Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction: Premier League, Saturday 10 October

Chelsea host Bournemouth in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Stamford Bridge (London). Chelsea are 10th in the table with 7 points from 5 games; Bournemouth are 17th with 3.

Our tips for this match

• Over 1.5 goals · 80% · Fair odds 1.25 · MegaPari 1.10
• Over 2.5 goals · 61% · Fair odds 1.63 · MegaPari 1.44
• Both teams to score: yes · 61% · Fair odds 1.64 · MegaPari 1.47

Who will win Chelsea vs Bournemouth?

Chelsea are favourites, though not by much: 50% to win, 24% for the draw and 27% for Bournemouth. MegaPari's 1.79 on Chelsea is shorter than our fair price of 2.01: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%), over 2.5 goals (61%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).

Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Goals are expected: 1.8 for Chelsea and 1.5 for Bournemouth, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.

Chelsea vs Bournemouth correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Chelsea and Bournemouth in their last five

Chelsea have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Bournemouth have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.

Chelsea: last five matches

Bournemouth: last five matches

Chelsea vs Bournemouth head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Chelsea won 2, Bournemouth won none and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 30 December 2025, finished Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.