Serie A
Como vs Roma prediction: Serie A, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Como host Roma in Serie A on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 13:30 EAT. The match is played at Giuseppe Sinigaglia (Como). Como are 8th in the table with 10 points from 5 games; Roma are 1st with 13.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Como vs Roma?
There is little to separate the sides: Como 36%, the draw 27%, Roma 37%. MegaPari's 2.68 on Roma sits right on our fair price of 2.70.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como to win | 36% | 2.79 | 2.69 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | 3.71 |
| Roma to win | 37% | 2.70 | 2.68 |
| Como or draw | 63% | 1.59 | 1.53 |
| Draw or Roma | 64% | 1.56 | 1.53 |
| Como or Roma | 73% | 1.37 | 1.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | 2.27 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | 1.76 | 1.53 |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | 2.32 | 2.37 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Como vs Roma
Expected goals are 1.2 for Como and 1.3 for Roma, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.
Como vs Roma correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.2% | 7.57 |
| 0-1 | 9.7% | 10.35 |
| 1-0 | 9.3% | 10.79 |
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 11.99 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.14 |
Form: Como and Roma in their last five
Como have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. Roma are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Como: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Frosinone (away)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Parma (home)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | RB Leipzig (home)UEFA Champions League | 4-1 | W |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Genoa CFC (away)Serie A | 4-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Napoli (away)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
Roma: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Inter (home)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Torino (away)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Fenerbahçe (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Atalanta (home)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 31 Aug 2026 | US Lecce (away)Serie A | 4-0 | W |
Como vs Roma head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Como won 2, Roma won 2 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 15 March 2026, finished Como 2–1 Roma.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Como – RomaSerie A | 2-1 |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Roma – ComoSerie A | 1-0 |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Roma – ComoSerie A | 2-1 |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Como – RomaSerie A | 2-0 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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