LaLiga
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Deportivo Alavés host Atlético Madrid in LaLiga on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 17:15 EAT. The match is played at Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz). Deportivo Alavés are 6th in the table with 11 points from 7 games; Atlético Madrid are 2nd with 16.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
Atlético Madrid are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 26% for the draw and 25% for Deportivo Alavés. MegaPari's 1.91 on Atlético Madrid is shorter than our fair price of 2.03: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés to win | 25% | 4.04 | 4.32 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | 3.84 |
| Atlético Madrid to win | 49% | 2.03 | 1.91 |
| Deportivo Alavés or draw | 51% | 1.97 | 1.99 |
| Draw or Atlético Madrid | 75% | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| Deportivo Alavés or Atlético Madrid | 74% | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.94 | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.06 | 2.03 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.86 | 1.72 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.17 | 2.02 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid
Expected goals are 1.1 for Deportivo Alavés and 1.6 for Atlético Madrid, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 0-1 (10%) and 1-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 8.02 |
| 0-1 | 10.3% | 9.74 |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | 10.71 |
| 0-2 | 8.4% | 11.93 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 13.57 |
Form: Deportivo Alavés and Atlético Madrid in their last five
Deportivo Alavés have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Atlético Madrid have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Deportivo Alavés: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Athletic Bilbao (away)LaLiga | 0-0 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Valencia (home)LaLiga | 0-1 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Racing de Santander (away)LaLiga | 1-2 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | CA Osasuna (home)LaLiga | 5-2 | W |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Villarreal (home)LaLiga | 1-0 | W |
Atlético Madrid: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Real Madrid (home)LaLiga | 2-1 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | CA Osasuna (home)LaLiga | 4-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Real Sociedad (away)LaLiga | 3-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Liverpool (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Athletic Bilbao (away)LaLiga | 0-3 | L |
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Deportivo Alavés won 1, Atlético Madrid won 3 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 18 January 2026, finished Atlético Madrid 1–0 Deportivo Alavés.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Atlético Madrid – Deportivo AlavésLaLiga | 1-0 |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Deportivo Alavés – Atlético MadridLaLiga | 1-1 |
| 3 May 2025 | Deportivo Alavés – Atlético MadridLaLiga | 0-0 |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Atlético Madrid – Deportivo AlavésLaLiga | 2-1 |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Deportivo Alavés – Atlético MadridLaLiga | 2-0 |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Atlético Madrid – Deportivo AlavésLaLiga | 2-1 |
The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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