LaLiga
Elche vs Celta Vigo prediction: LaLiga, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Elche host Celta Vigo in LaLiga on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 15:00 EAT. The match is played at Manuel Martinez Valero (Elche). Elche are 18th in the table with 5 points from 7 games; Celta Vigo are 14th with 7.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Elche vs Celta Vigo?
There is little to separate the sides: Elche 35%, the draw 28%, Celta Vigo 36%. MegaPari's 2.68 on Celta Vigo sits right on our fair price of 2.74.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to win | 35% | 2.83 | 2.93 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | 3.33 |
| Celta Vigo to win | 36% | 2.74 | 2.68 |
| Elche or draw | 64% | 1.57 | 1.53 |
| Draw or Celta Vigo | 65% | 1.55 | 1.46 |
| Elche or Celta Vigo | 72% | 1.39 | 1.38 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.04 | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 | 1.84 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.86 | 1.76 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.16 | 1.97 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Elche vs Celta Vigo
Expected goals are 1.4 for Elche and 1.3 for Celta Vigo, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Elche vs Celta Vigo correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (9%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.85 |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | 11.55 |
| 0-1 | 8.5% | 11.74 |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | 12.00 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.20 |
Form: Elche and Celta Vigo in their last five
Elche have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Celta Vigo have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Elche: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Espanyol (away)LaLiga | 3-1 | W |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Real Madrid (home)LaLiga | 2-3 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Athletic Bilbao (away)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Real Sociedad (home)LaLiga | 2-3 | L |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Racing de Santander (away)LaLiga | 2-3 | L |
Celta Vigo: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Racing de Santander (home)LaLiga | 5-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Omonia (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Malaga (home)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Getafe (away)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Real Sociedad (away)LaLiga | 0-0 | D |
Elche vs Celta Vigo head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Elche won 1, Celta Vigo won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Celta Vigo 3–1 Elche.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Celta Vigo – ElcheLaLiga | 3-1 |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Elche – Celta VigoLaLiga | 2-1 |
The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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