Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Schalke 04 prediction: Bundesliga, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Freiburg host Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 18:30 EAT. The match is played at Europa Park (Freiburg im Breisgau). Freiburg are 3rd in the table with 10 points from 4 games; Schalke 04 are 11th with 5.
Our tips for this match
- Freiburg to win · 58% · Fair odds 1.72 · MegaPari 1.71
- Freiburg or draw · 82% · Fair odds 1.22 · MegaPari 1.19
Who will win Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Freiburg are favourites, though not by much: 58% to win, 24% for the draw and 18% for Schalke 04. MegaPari's 1.71 on Freiburg sits right on our fair price of 1.72.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Freiburg to win (58%) and Freiburg or draw (82%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg to win Tip | 58% | 1.72 | 1.71 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | 4.07 |
| Schalke 04 to win | 18% | 5.65 | 5.44 |
| Freiburg or draw Tip | 82% | 1.22 | 1.19 |
| Draw or Schalke 04 | 42% | 2.38 | 2.27 |
| Freiburg or Schalke 04 | 76% | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.85 | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.17 | 2.36 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.54 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.86 | 1.63 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.17 | 2.17 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Freiburg vs Schalke 04
Expected goals are 1.7 for Freiburg and 0.8 for Schalke 04, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 54%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Freiburg vs Schalke 04 correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 13%, ahead of 2-0 (12%) and 1-1 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.9% | 7.77 |
| 2-0 | 11.6% | 8.66 |
| 1-1 | 11.5% | 8.67 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.41 |
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 12.32 |
Form: Freiburg and Schalke 04 in their last five
Freiburg are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 16 goals scored and 4 conceded. Schalke 04 have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
Freiburg: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt (away)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Gladbach (home)Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Paderborn 07 (away)Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | SV Werder Bremen (home)Bundesliga | 4-1 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Motherwell (home)UEFA Conference League | 4-1 | W |
Schalke 04: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | SV 07 Elversberg (home)Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Union Berlin (away)Bundesliga | 3-1 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Bayern Munich (home)Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Augsburg (away)Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
| 17 May 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig (home)2. Bundesliga | 1-0 | W |
Freiburg vs Schalke 04 head to head
Freiburg and Schalke 04 have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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