Serie A
Genoa CFC vs Fiorentina prediction: Serie A, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Genoa CFC host Fiorentina in Serie A on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at Luigi Ferraris (Genoa). Genoa CFC are 19th in the table with 1 points from 5 games; Fiorentina are 17th with 4.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Genoa CFC vs Fiorentina?
There is little to separate the sides: Genoa CFC 30%, the draw 28%, Fiorentina 41%. MegaPari's 2.39 on Fiorentina sits right on our fair price of 2.42.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC to win | 30% | 3.28 | 3.23 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | 3.48 |
| Fiorentina to win | 41% | 2.42 | 2.39 |
| Genoa CFC or draw | 59% | 1.71 | 1.65 |
| Draw or Fiorentina | 70% | 1.44 | 1.40 |
| Genoa CFC or Fiorentina | 72% | 1.39 | 1.35 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | 1.87 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.90 | 1.75 |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.11 | 1.98 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Genoa CFC vs Fiorentina
Expected goals are 1.1 for Genoa CFC and 1.4 for Fiorentina, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 48%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.
Genoa CFC vs Fiorentina correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 0-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.52 |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | 9.17 |
| 0-0 | 9.0% | 11.16 |
| 1-0 | 8.9% | 11.19 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.57 |
Form: Genoa CFC and Fiorentina in their last five
Genoa CFC have not won in 5 (1 draw, 4 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. Fiorentina have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -6. The results cover every competition in our data.
Genoa CFC: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Parma (away)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Frosinone (home)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Como (home)Serie A | 1-4 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Lazio (away)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Napoli (home)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
Fiorentina: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Napoli (home)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Venezia (away)Serie A | 4-2 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Torino (home)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Frosinone (home)Serie A | 0-3 | L |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Roma (away)Serie A | 0-4 | L |
Genoa CFC vs Fiorentina head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Genoa CFC won none, Fiorentina won 2 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 10 May 2026, finished Fiorentina 0–0 Genoa CFC.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Fiorentina – Genoa CFCSerie A | 0-0 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Genoa CFC – FiorentinaSerie A | 2-2 |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina – Genoa CFCSerie A | 2-1 |
| 31 Oct 2024 | Genoa CFC – FiorentinaSerie A | 0-1 |
| 15 Apr 2024 | Fiorentina – Genoa CFCSerie A | 1-1 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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