Serie A
Inter vs Parma prediction: Serie A, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Inter host Parma in Serie A on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 19:00 EAT. The match is played at Giuseppe Meazza (Milan). Inter are 2nd in the table with 13 points from 5 games; Parma are 15th with 4.
Our tips for this match
- Inter to win · 80% · Fair odds 1.25 · MegaPari 1.16
- Inter or draw · 94% · Fair odds 1.07 · MegaPari 1.02
- Over 2.5 goals · 63% · Fair odds 1.60 · MegaPari 1.32
Who will win Inter vs Parma?
The model makes Inter clear favourites at 80%, with the draw at 13% and Parma at 6%. MegaPari's 1.16 on Inter is shorter than our fair price of 1.25: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Inter to win (80%), Inter or draw (94%) and over 2.5 goals (63%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter to win Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.54 | 9.85 |
| Parma to win | 6% | 15.41 | 19.50 |
| Inter or draw Tip | 94% | 1.07 | 1.02 |
| Draw or Parma | 20% | 5.06 | 6.15 |
| Inter or Parma | 87% | 1.15 | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 63% | 1.60 | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 | 1.97 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | 2.12 | 2.03 |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | 1.89 | 1.72 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Inter vs Parma
Goals are expected: 2.4 for Inter and 0.6 for Parma, 3.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 47%.
Inter vs Parma correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-0 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 (12%) and 3-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 14.0% | 7.13 |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | 8.58 |
| 3-0 | 11.0% | 9.12 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.30 |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | 12.74 |
Form: Inter and Parma in their last five
Inter have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.
Inter: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Roma (away)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Udinese (home)Serie A | 5-3 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Real Madrid (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Napoli (home)Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Cagliari (away)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
Parma: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Genoa CFC (home)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Como (away)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Monza (home)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Juventus (away)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Cagliari (home)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
Inter vs Parma head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Inter won 3, Parma won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Inter 2–0 Parma.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Inter – ParmaSerie A | 2-0 |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Parma – InterSerie A | 0-2 |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Parma – InterSerie A | 2-2 |
| 6 Dec 2024 | Inter – ParmaSerie A | 3-1 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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