Bundesliga
Köln vs Gladbach prediction: Bundesliga, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Köln host Gladbach in the Bundesliga on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at Rhein Energie (Cologne). Köln are 13th in the table with 4 points from 4 games; Gladbach are 18th with 0.
Our tips for this match
- Over 1.5 goals · 79% · Fair odds 1.27 · MegaPari 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals · 60% · Fair odds 1.66 · MegaPari 1.44
- Both teams to score: yes · 61% · Fair odds 1.64 · MegaPari 1.44
Who will win Köln vs Gladbach?
Köln are favourites, though not by much: 46% to win, 24% for the draw and 30% for Gladbach. MegaPari's 2.02 on Köln is shorter than our fair price of 2.17: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%), over 2.5 goals (60%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Köln to win | 46% | 2.17 | 2.02 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | 4.16 |
| Gladbach to win | 30% | 3.36 | 3.57 |
| Köln or draw | 70% | 1.42 | 1.34 |
| Draw or Gladbach | 54% | 1.85 | 1.88 |
| Köln or Gladbach | 76% | 1.32 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 79% | 1.27 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 60% | 1.66 | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.52 | 2.55 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.53 | 1.73 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 61% | 1.64 | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | 2.56 | 2.62 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Köln vs Gladbach
Goals are expected: 1.7 for Köln and 1.4 for Gladbach, 3.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.
Köln vs Gladbach correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.86 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.05 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.14 |
| 1-0 | 7.3% | 13.68 |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 15.48 |
Form: Köln and Gladbach in their last five
Köln have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -7. Gladbach have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -6. The results cover every competition in our data.
Köln: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Hamburger SV (away)Bundesliga | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | SV Werder Bremen (home)Bundesliga | 1-1 | D |
| 4 Sep 2026 | VfB Stuttgart (away)Bundesliga | 1-4 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | TSG Hoffenheim (home)Bundesliga | 3-2 | W |
| 16 May 2026 | Bayern Munich (away)Bundesliga | 1-5 | L |
Gladbach: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Mainz (home)Bundesliga | 3-4 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Freiburg (away)Bundesliga | 0-5 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | SV 07 Elversberg (home)Bundesliga | 3-4 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | RB Leipzig (away)Bundesliga | 0-3 | L |
| 16 May 2026 | TSG Hoffenheim (home)Bundesliga | 4-0 | W |
Köln vs Gladbach head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Köln won 1, Gladbach won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 21 March 2026, finished Köln 3–3 Gladbach.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | Köln – GladbachBundesliga | 3-3 |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Gladbach – KölnBundesliga | 3-1 |
| 9 Mar 2024 | Gladbach – KölnBundesliga | 3-3 |
| 22 Oct 2023 | Köln – GladbachBundesliga | 3-1 |
The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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