Serie A
Lazio vs Monza prediction: Serie A, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lazio host Monza in Serie A on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at Olimpico (Rome). Lazio are 3rd in the table with 13 points from 5 games; Monza are 16th with 4.
Our tips for this match
- Lazio to win · 59% · Fair odds 1.70 · MegaPari 1.63
- Lazio or draw · 83% · Fair odds 1.20 · MegaPari 1.16
Who will win Lazio vs Monza?
Lazio are favourites, though not by much: 59% to win, 24% for the draw and 17% for Monza. MegaPari's 1.63 on Lazio is shorter than our fair price of 1.70: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Lazio to win (59%) and Lazio or draw (83%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio to win Tip | 59% | 1.70 | 1.63 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.15 | 4.17 |
| Monza to win | 17% | 5.89 | 6.18 |
| Lazio or draw Tip | 83% | 1.20 | 1.16 |
| Draw or Monza | 41% | 2.43 | 2.43 |
| Lazio or Monza | 76% | 1.32 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.00 | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.00 | 1.99 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.31 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | 2.00 | 1.89 |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | 2.00 | 1.83 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lazio vs Monza
Expected goals are 1.7 for Lazio and 0.8 for Monza, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 50%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 50%.
Lazio vs Monza correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 13%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.7% | 7.86 |
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.56 |
| 2-0 | 11.3% | 8.87 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.40 |
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 12.29 |
Form: Lazio and Monza in their last five
Lazio are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 8 goals scored and 3 conceded. Monza have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lazio: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Venezia (away)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | AC Milan (home)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Udinese (away)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Genoa CFC (home)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Bologna (away)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
Monza: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | US Sassuolo (home)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | US Lecce (away)Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Parma (away)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Udinese (home)Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Inter (away)Serie A | 1-4 | L |
Lazio vs Monza head to head
In their last three meetings in our data, Lazio won 2, Monza won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 9 February 2025, finished Lazio 5–1 Monza.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Feb 2025 | Lazio – MonzaSerie A | 5-1 |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Monza – LazioSerie A | 0-1 |
| 4 May 2024 | Monza – LazioSerie A | 2-2 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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