Ligue 1
Lens vs Lyon prediction: Ligue 1, Friday 9 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lens host Lyon in Ligue 1 on Friday 9 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Bollaert-Delelis (Lens). Lens are 15th in the table with 4 points from 5 games; Lyon are 2nd with 11.
Our tips for this match
- Both teams to score: yes · 61% · Fair odds 1.65 · MegaPari 1.43
Who will win Lens vs Lyon?
There is little to separate the sides: Lens 40%, the draw 26%, Lyon 34%. MegaPari's 2.53 on Lens sits right on our fair price of 2.47.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (61%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens to win | 40% | 2.47 | 2.53 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | 3.82 |
| Lyon to win | 34% | 2.95 | 2.79 |
| Lens or draw | 66% | 1.51 | 1.50 |
| Draw or Lyon | 60% | 1.68 | 1.59 |
| Lens or Lyon | 74% | 1.34 | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.39 | 2.40 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 | 1.68 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 61% | 1.65 | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | 2.54 | 2.66 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lens vs Lyon
Goals are expected: 1.6 for Lens and 1.4 for Lyon, 2.9 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.
Lens vs Lyon correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.40 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.19 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.50 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.89 |
| 0-1 | 6.9% | 14.53 |
Form: Lens and Lyon in their last five
Lens have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Lyon are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lens: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Monaco (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Le Mans (away)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Slavia Prague (away)UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Lorient (home)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Strasbourg (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
Lyon: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Rennes (home)Ligue 1 | 4-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Anderlecht (away)UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Paris (away)Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| 4 Sep 2026 | AJ Auxerre (home)Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Le Havre (home)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
Lens vs Lyon head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Lens won 4, Lyon won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 17 May 2026, finished Lyon 0–4 Lens.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Lyon – LensLigue 1 | 0-4 |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Lens – LyonLigue 1 | 0-1 |
| 4 May 2025 | Lyon – LensLigue 1 | 1-2 |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Lens – LyonLigue 1 | 0-0 |
| 3 Mar 2024 | Lyon – LensLigue 1 | 0-3 |
| 2 Dec 2023 | Lens – LyonLigue 1 | 3-2 |
How the odds have moved
MegaPari's price on Lens has drifted from 2.44 to 2.53 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.50 to 1.49, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lens to win | 2.44 | 2.53 ↑ |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.82 ↑ |
| Lyon to win | 2.92 | 2.79 ↓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.49 ↓ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.40 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.44 | 1.43 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.61 | 2.66 ↑ |
Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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