Lens vs Sporting CP prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 13 October

Lens host Sporting CP in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 19:45 EAT. The match is played at Bollaert-Delelis (Lens). Lens are 10th in the table with 3 points from 1 games; Sporting CP are 7th with 3.

Our tips for this match

• Over 1.5 goals · 79% · Fair odds 1.27 · MegaPari 1.15
• Both teams to score: yes · 61% · Fair odds 1.65 · MegaPari 1.47

Who will win Lens vs Sporting CP?

There is little to separate the sides: Lens 38%, the draw 25%, Sporting CP 37%. MegaPari's 2.62 on Lens sits right on our fair price of 2.65.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).

Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Lens vs Sporting CP

Goals are expected: 1.6 for Lens and 1.5 for Sporting CP, 3.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.

Lens vs Sporting CP correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (8%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Lens and Sporting CP in their last five

Lens have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Sporting CP are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 12 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Lens: last five matches

Sporting CP: last five matches

Lens vs Sporting CP head to head

Lens and Sporting CP have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

MegaPari's price on Lens has drifted from 2.53 to 2.62 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.65 to 1.64, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.