Ligue 1
Lille vs Le Havre prediction: Ligue 1, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lille host Le Havre in Ligue 1 on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 18:15 EAT. The match is played at Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve-d'Ascq). Lille are 4th in the table with 10 points from 5 games; Le Havre are 18th with 2.
Our tips for this match
- Lille to win · 64% · Fair odds 1.57 · MegaPari 1.48
- Lille or draw · 86% · Fair odds 1.16 · MegaPari 1.11
- Under 3.5 goals · 76% · Fair odds 1.31 · MegaPari 1.44
Who will win Lille vs Le Havre?
The model makes Lille clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 23% and Le Havre at 14%. MegaPari's 1.48 on Lille is shorter than our fair price of 1.57: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Lille to win (64%), Lille or draw (86%) and under 3.5 goals (76%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille to win Tip | 64% | 1.57 | 1.48 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.41 | 4.88 |
| Le Havre to win | 14% | 7.23 | 7.49 |
| Lille or draw Tip | 86% | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| Draw or Le Havre | 37% | 2.74 | 2.87 |
| Lille or Le Havre | 77% | 1.29 | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.95 | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.06 | 2.30 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 76% | 1.31 | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | 2.04 | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | 1.96 | 1.89 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lille vs Le Havre
Expected goals are 1.6 for Lille and 0.7 for Le Havre, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 49%.
Lille vs Le Havre correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 16%, ahead of 2-0 (13%) and 1-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.9% | 6.29 |
| 2-0 | 13.4% | 7.48 |
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.81 |
| 0-0 | 10.4% | 9.61 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.20 |
Form: Lille and Le Havre in their last five
Lille have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Le Havre have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lille: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Nice (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Troyes (home)Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Real Betis (home)UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Toulouse (away)Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| 28 Aug 2026 | PSG (home)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Le Havre: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Toulouse (away)Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Angers SCO (home)Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Brest (home)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Lyon (away)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Monaco (home)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
Lille vs Le Havre head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Lille won 3, Le Havre won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Lille 1–1 Le Havre.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Lille – Le HavreLigue 1 | 1-1 |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Le Havre – LilleLigue 1 | 0-1 |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Lille – Le HavreLigue 1 | 1-2 |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Le Havre – LilleLigue 1 | 0-3 |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Lille – Le HavreLigue 1 | 3-0 |
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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