Premier League
Liverpool vs Man City prediction: Premier League, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Liverpool host Man City in the Premier League on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 18:30 EAT. The match is played at Anfield (Liverpool). Liverpool are 6th in the table with 9 points from 5 games; Man City are 1st with 15.
Our tips for this match
- Both teams to score: yes · 60% · Fair odds 1.67 · MegaPari 1.47
Who will win Liverpool vs Man City?
There is little to separate the sides: Liverpool 36%, the draw 26%, Man City 38%. MegaPari's 2.67 on Man City sits right on our fair price of 2.61.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (60%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win | 36% | 2.76 | 2.64 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | 3.82 |
| Man City to win | 38% | 2.61 | 2.67 |
| Liverpool or draw | 62% | 1.62 | 1.54 |
| Draw or Man City | 64% | 1.57 | 1.55 |
| Liverpool or Man City | 74% | 1.34 | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.37 | 2.31 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | 1.63 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 60% | 1.67 | 1.47 |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | 2.50 | 2.53 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Liverpool vs Man City
Expected goals are 1.4 for Liverpool and 1.5 for Man City, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.
Liverpool vs Man City correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.51 |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | 11.51 |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | 12.36 |
| 0-1 | 7.4% | 13.46 |
| 1-0 | 6.9% | 14.51 |
Form: Liverpool and Man City in their last five
Liverpool are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 7 goals scored and 3 conceded. Man City have won all of their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Liverpool: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Bournemouth (away)Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Fulham (home)Premier League | 0-0 | D |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Atlético Madrid (home)UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Ipswich Town (away)Premier League | 2-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Nottingham Forest (home)Premier League | 2-2 | D |
Man City: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Sunderland (home)Premier League | 5-3 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Man United (away)Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Porto (away)UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Coventry City (home)Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Crystal Palace (away)Premier League | 4-1 | W |
Liverpool vs Man City head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Liverpool won 2, Man City won 2 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 8 February 2026, finished Liverpool 1–2 Man City.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Liverpool – Man CityPremier League | 1-2 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Man City – LiverpoolPremier League | 3-0 |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Man City – LiverpoolPremier League | 0-2 |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Liverpool – Man CityPremier League | 2-0 |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Liverpool – Man CityPremier League | 1-1 |
| 25 Nov 2023 | Man City – LiverpoolPremier League | 1-1 |
The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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