Lorient vs Paris prediction: Ligue 1, Saturday 10 October

Lorient host Paris in Ligue 1 on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Stade du Moustoir (Lorient). Lorient are 12th in the table with 5 points from 5 games; Paris are 3rd with 11.

Our tips for this match

No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.

Who will win Lorient vs Paris?

There is little to separate the sides: Lorient 34%, the draw 28%, Paris 38%. MegaPari's 2.36 on Paris is shorter than our fair price of 2.64: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Lorient vs Paris

Expected goals are 1.3 for Lorient and 1.2 for Paris, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.

Lorient vs Paris correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Lorient and Paris in their last five

Lorient have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Paris are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 8 goals scored and 3 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Lorient: last five matches

Paris: last five matches

Lorient vs Paris head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Lorient won 1, Paris won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 5 April 2026, finished Lorient 1–1 Paris.

How the odds have moved

MegaPari's price on Paris has shortened from 2.42 to 2.36 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.96 to 2.02, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.