Bundesliga
Mainz vs Leverkusen prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Mainz host Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at Mewa Arena (Mainz). Mainz are 6th in the table with 7 points from 4 games; Leverkusen are 5th with 7.
Our tips for this match
- Both teams to score: yes · 61% · Fair odds 1.64 · MegaPari 1.39
Who will win Mainz vs Leverkusen?
There is little to separate the sides: Mainz 31%, the draw 25%, Leverkusen 43%. MegaPari's 2.31 on Leverkusen sits right on our fair price of 2.31.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (61%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz to win | 31% | 3.18 | 3.01 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | 3.98 |
| Leverkusen to win | 43% | 2.31 | 2.31 |
| Mainz or draw | 57% | 1.76 | 1.69 |
| Draw or Leverkusen | 69% | 1.46 | 1.44 |
| Mainz or Leverkusen | 75% | 1.34 | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.44 | 2.64 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 | 1.79 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 61% | 1.64 | 1.39 |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | 2.56 | 2.81 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Mainz vs Leverkusen
Goals are expected: 1.2 for Mainz and 1.6 for Leverkusen, 2.8 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.
Mainz vs Leverkusen correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.14 |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | 10.95 |
| 0-1 | 9.0% | 11.07 |
| 0-2 | 7.3% | 13.61 |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | 13.62 |
Form: Mainz and Leverkusen in their last five
Mainz have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. Leverkusen have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. The results cover every competition in our data.
Mainz: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Gladbach (away)Bundesliga | 4-3 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt (home)Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Hamburger SV (away)Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Paderborn 07 (home)Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| 16 May 2026 | Heidenheim (away)Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
Leverkusen: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | RB Leipzig (home)Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Celje (home)UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Augsburg (away)Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Union Berlin (home)Bundesliga | 4-0 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | SV 07 Elversberg (away)Bundesliga | 2-3 | L |
Mainz vs Leverkusen head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Mainz won none, Leverkusen won 3 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 28 February 2026, finished Leverkusen 1–1 Mainz.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Leverkusen – MainzBundesliga | 1-1 |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Mainz – LeverkusenBundesliga | 3-4 |
| 17 May 2025 | Mainz – LeverkusenBundesliga | 2-2 |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Leverkusen – MainzBundesliga | 1-0 |
| 23 Feb 2024 | Leverkusen – MainzBundesliga | 2-1 |
The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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