LaLiga
Malaga vs Espanyol prediction: LaLiga, Friday 9 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Malaga host Espanyol in LaLiga on Friday 9 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at La Rosaleda (Malaga). Malaga are 20th in the table with 3 points from 7 games; Espanyol are 15th with 7.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Malaga vs Espanyol?
There is little to separate the sides: Malaga 38%, the draw 29%, Espanyol 33%. MegaPari pays 2.74 on Malaga, more than our fair price of 2.63.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga to win | 38% | 2.63 | 2.74 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | 3.37 |
| Espanyol to win | 33% | 3.01 | 2.83 |
| Malaga or draw | 67% | 1.50 | 1.49 |
| Draw or Espanyol | 62% | 1.61 | 1.51 |
| Malaga or Espanyol | 71% | 1.40 | 1.37 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | 1.84 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | 1.90 | 1.76 |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | 2.11 | 1.97 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Malaga vs Espanyol
Expected goals are 1.3 for Malaga and 1.1 for Espanyol, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 47%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.
Malaga vs Espanyol correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.47 |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | 9.28 |
| 0-1 | 9.2% | 10.82 |
| 0-0 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.79 |
Form: Malaga and Espanyol in their last five
Malaga have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 2 in that run. Espanyol have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Malaga: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Getafe (away)LaLiga | 0-1 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Villarreal (home)LaLiga | 1-3 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Celta Vigo (away)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Levante UD (home)LaLiga | 0-0 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Real Madrid (away)LaLiga | 0-4 | L |
Espanyol: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Elche (home)LaLiga | 1-3 | L |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Rayo Vallecano (away)LaLiga | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | CA Osasuna (away)LaLiga | 2-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Sevilla (home)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Real Sociedad (away)LaLiga | 1-2 | L |
Malaga vs Espanyol head to head
Malaga and Espanyol have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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