Ligue 1
Monaco vs Toulouse prediction: Ligue 1, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Monaco host Toulouse in Ligue 1 on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Louis II (Monaco). Monaco are 1st in the table with 13 points from 5 games; Toulouse are 13th with 5.
Our tips for this match
- Monaco to win · 59% · Fair odds 1.70 · MegaPari 1.65
- Monaco or draw · 81% · Fair odds 1.24 · MegaPari 1.19
- Over 1.5 goals · 80% · Fair odds 1.25 · MegaPari 1.14
Who will win Monaco vs Toulouse?
Monaco are favourites, though not by much: 59% to win, 22% for the draw and 19% for Toulouse. MegaPari's 1.65 on Monaco is shorter than our fair price of 1.70: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Monaco to win (59%), Monaco or draw (81%) and over 1.5 goals (80%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco to win Tip | 59% | 1.70 | 1.65 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.57 | 4.47 |
| Toulouse to win | 19% | 5.17 | 5.44 |
| Monaco or draw Tip | 81% | 1.24 | 1.19 |
| Draw or Toulouse | 41% | 2.43 | 2.39 |
| Monaco or Toulouse | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 80% | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.68 | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.46 | 2.45 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.58 | 1.50 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | 1.75 | 1.61 |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | 2.34 | 2.19 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Monaco vs Toulouse
Goals are expected: 2.1 for Monaco and 1.2 for Toulouse, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.
Monaco vs Toulouse correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.8% | 10.15 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.19 |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 11.93 |
| 1-0 | 7.7% | 12.97 |
| 3-1 | 6.8% | 14.75 |
Form: Monaco and Toulouse in their last five
Monaco are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. Toulouse have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Monaco: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Lens (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Strasbourg (away)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| 4 Sep 2026 | PSG (away)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Marseille (home)Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Gornik Zabrze (home)UEFA Conference League | 4-1 | W |
Toulouse: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Le Havre (home)Ligue 1 | 3-2 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Lorient (away)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Lille (home)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Brest (away)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Lyon (home)Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
Monaco vs Toulouse head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Monaco won 3, Toulouse won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 25 April 2026, finished Toulouse 2–2 Monaco.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Toulouse – MonacoLigue 1 | 2-2 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Monaco – ToulouseLigue 1 | 1-0 |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Toulouse – MonacoLigue 1 | 1-1 |
| 7 Dec 2024 | Monaco – ToulouseLigue 1 | 2-0 |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Monaco – ToulouseLigue 1 | 1-2 |
| 20 Dec 2023 | Toulouse – MonacoLigue 1 | 1-2 |
How the odds have moved
MegaPari's price on Monaco has shortened from 1.69 to 1.65 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.68 to 1.65, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco to win | 1.69 | 1.65 ↓ |
| Draw | 4.37 | 4.47 ↑ |
| Toulouse to win | 5.18 | 5.44 ↑ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 1.65 ↓ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.45 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.63 | 1.61 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.17 | 2.19 ↑ |
Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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