Serie A
Napoli vs Frosinone prediction: Serie A, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Napoli host Frosinone in Serie A on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Diego Armando Maradona (Naples). Napoli are 9th in the table with 7 points from 5 games; Frosinone are 6th with 10.
Our tips for this match
- Napoli to win · 61% · Fair odds 1.65 · MegaPari 1.49
- Napoli or draw · 83% · Fair odds 1.20 · MegaPari 1.12
Who will win Napoli vs Frosinone?
The model makes Napoli clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 23% and Frosinone at 17%. MegaPari's 1.49 on Napoli is shorter than our fair price of 1.65: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Napoli to win (61%) and Napoli or draw (83%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli to win Tip | 61% | 1.65 | 1.49 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.41 | 5.00 |
| Frosinone to win | 17% | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| Napoli or draw Tip | 83% | 1.20 | 1.12 |
| Draw or Frosinone | 39% | 2.54 | 2.83 |
| Napoli or Frosinone | 77% | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.27 | 2.50 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | 1.72 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | 1.86 | 1.63 |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | 2.17 | 2.17 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Napoli vs Frosinone
Expected goals are 1.6 for Napoli and 0.9 for Frosinone, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.
Napoli vs Frosinone correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 13%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.1% | 7.66 |
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.27 |
| 2-0 | 11.0% | 9.08 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.56 |
| 0-0 | 8.8% | 11.40 |
Form: Napoli and Frosinone in their last five
Napoli have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Frosinone have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.
Napoli: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Fiorentina (away)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Bologna (home)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Arsenal (home)UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Inter (away)Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Como (home)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
Frosinone: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Como (home)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Genoa CFC (away)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Venezia (home)Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Fiorentina (away)Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Juventus (home)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
Napoli vs Frosinone head to head
The two have met once in our data: on 14 April 2024, Napoli 2–2 Frosinone.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr 2024 | Napoli – FrosinoneSerie A | 2-2 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: TIPSQUANT