Ligue 1
Nice vs Strasbourg prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Nice host Strasbourg in Ligue 1 on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at Allianz Riviera (Nice). Nice are 14th in the table with 5 points from 5 games; Strasbourg are 8th with 7.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Nice vs Strasbourg?
There is little to separate the sides: Nice 35%, the draw 26%, Strasbourg 39%. MegaPari pays 3.07 on Strasbourg, more than our fair price of 2.59.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice to win | 35% | 2.83 | 2.36 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | 3.75 |
| Strasbourg to win | 39% | 2.59 | 3.07 |
| Nice or draw | 61% | 1.63 | 1.43 |
| Draw or Strasbourg | 65% | 1.55 | 1.66 |
| Nice or Strasbourg | 74% | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.20 | 2.22 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | 1.74 | 1.56 |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | 2.35 | 2.30 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Nice vs Strasbourg
Expected goals are 1.2 for Nice and 1.6 for Strasbourg, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.
Nice vs Strasbourg correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.26 |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | 10.79 |
| 0-1 | 9.0% | 11.15 |
| 0-2 | 7.5% | 13.32 |
| 2-1 | 7.2% | 13.93 |
Form: Nice and Strasbourg in their last five
Nice have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Strasbourg have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
Nice: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Lille (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | AJ Auxerre (away)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Le Mans (home)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Paris (away)Ligue 1 | 0-3 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Lorient (home)Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
Strasbourg: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Paris (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Monaco (home)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Troyes (away)Ligue 1 | 6-2 | W |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Lens (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 21 Aug 2026 | Marseille (away)Ligue 1 | 0-4 | L |
Nice vs Strasbourg head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Nice won 2, Strasbourg won 1 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 4 April 2026, finished Strasbourg 3–1 Nice.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Strasbourg – NiceLigue 1 | 3-1 |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Nice – StrasbourgLigue 1 | 1-1 |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Strasbourg – NiceLigue 1 | 2-2 |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Nice – StrasbourgLigue 1 | 2-1 |
| 28 Apr 2024 | Strasbourg – NiceLigue 1 | 1-3 |
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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