Ligue 1
PSG vs Le Mans prediction: Ligue 1, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
PSG host Le Mans in Ligue 1 on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Parc des Princes (Paris). PSG are 6th in the table with 8 points from 5 games; Le Mans are 9th with 6.
Our tips for this match
- PSG to win · 85% · Fair odds 1.17 · MegaPari 1.08
- PSG or draw · 95% · Fair odds 1.05
- Over 1.5 goals · 83% · Fair odds 1.21 · MegaPari 1.01
- Over 2.5 goals · 71% · Fair odds 1.42 · MegaPari 1.18
Who will win PSG vs Le Mans?
The model makes PSG clear favourites at 85%, with the draw at 10% and Le Mans at 5%. MegaPari's 1.08 on PSG is shorter than our fair price of 1.17: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: PSG to win (85%), PSG or draw (95%), over 1.5 goals (83%) and over 2.5 goals (71%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG to win Tip | 85% | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| Draw | 10% | 10.34 | 16.50 |
| Le Mans to win | 5% | 19.80 | 34.00 |
| PSG or draw Tip | 95% | 1.05 | – |
| Draw or Le Mans | 15% | 6.79 | – |
| PSG or Le Mans | 90% | 1.11 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 83% | 1.21 | 1.01 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 71% | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29% | 3.40 | 4.15 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.71 | 2.39 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | 2.06 | 2.07 |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | 1.95 | 1.69 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in PSG vs Le Mans
Goals are expected: 2.8 for PSG and 0.8 for Le Mans, 3.6 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 71%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 49%.
PSG vs Le Mans correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-0 at 11%, ahead of 3-0 (10%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 11.0% | 9.08 |
| 3-0 | 10.3% | 9.67 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.83 |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | 12.59 |
| 1-0 | 7.6% | 13.21 |
Form: PSG and Le Mans in their last five
PSG have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. Le Mans have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. The results cover every competition in our data.
PSG: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Marseille (away)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Brest (away)Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Slovan Bratislava (home)UEFA Champions League | 6-1 | W |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Monaco (home)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Lille (away)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Le Mans: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Lorient (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Lens (home)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Nice (away)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Rennes (away)Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Brest (home)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
PSG vs Le Mans head to head
PSG and Le Mans have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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