LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Rayo Vallecano host Athletic Bilbao in LaLiga on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 15:00 EAT. The match is played at Campo de Vallecas (Madrid). Rayo Vallecano are 12th in the table with 8 points from 7 games; Athletic Bilbao are 10th with 8.
Our tips for this match
- Under 3.5 goals · 77% · Fair odds 1.29 · MegaPari 1.30
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?
There is little to separate the sides: Rayo Vallecano 37%, the draw 29%, Athletic Bilbao 34%. MegaPari pays 2.99 on Rayo Vallecano, more than our fair price of 2.67.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (77%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to win | 37% | 2.67 | 2.99 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | 3.51 |
| Athletic Bilbao to win | 34% | 2.96 | 2.53 |
| Rayo Vallecano or draw | 66% | 1.51 | 1.59 |
| Draw or Athletic Bilbao | 63% | 1.60 | 1.45 |
| Rayo Vallecano or Athletic Bilbao | 71% | 1.40 | 1.35 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.44 | 1.27 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | 1.95 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 77% | 1.29 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | 1.91 | 1.69 |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | 2.10 | 2.07 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao
Expected goals are 1.2 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.0 for Athletic Bilbao, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 47%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 52%.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 (13%) and 0-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.7% | 7.30 |
| 1-0 | 12.8% | 7.81 |
| 0-0 | 11.2% | 8.96 |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | 10.03 |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 11.96 |
Form: Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao in their last five
Rayo Vallecano have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Athletic Bilbao have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.
Rayo Vallecano: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | CA Osasuna (away)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Espanyol (home)LaLiga | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Real Madrid (away)LaLiga | 1-4 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Racing de Santander (home)LaLiga | 3-2 | W |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Barcelona (away)LaLiga | 2-5 | L |
Athletic Bilbao: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Deportivo Alavés (home)LaLiga | 0-0 | D |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Elche (home)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Atlético Madrid (home)LaLiga | 3-0 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Celta Vigo (away)LaLiga | 2-0 | W |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Barcelona (away)LaLiga | 0-2 | L |
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, Rayo Vallecano won none, Athletic Bilbao won 5 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 28 February 2026, finished Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Athletic Bilbao.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Rayo Vallecano – Athletic BilbaoLaLiga | 1-1 |
| 25 Aug 2025 | Athletic Bilbao – Rayo VallecanoLaLiga | 1-0 |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Athletic Bilbao – Rayo VallecanoLaLiga | 3-1 |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Rayo Vallecano – Athletic BilbaoLaLiga | 1-2 |
| 25 May 2024 | Rayo Vallecano – Athletic BilbaoLaLiga | 0-1 |
| 2 Dec 2023 | Athletic Bilbao – Rayo VallecanoLaLiga | 4-0 |
How the odds have moved
MegaPari's price on Rayo Vallecano has shortened from 3.12 to 2.99 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.96 to 1.99, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to win | 3.12 | 2.99 ↓ |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.51 ↓ |
| Athletic Bilbao to win | 2.42 | 2.53 ↑ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.96 | 1.99 ↑ |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.98 | 1.95 ↓ |
| Both teams to score: yes | 1.67 | 1.69 ↑ |
| Both teams to score: no | 2.10 | 2.07 ↓ |
Prices from MegaPari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: TIPSQUANT