UEFA Champions League
RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 13 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
RB Leipzig host PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Red Bull Arena (Leipzig). RB Leipzig are 32nd in the table with 0 points from 1 games; PSV Eindhoven are 19th with 1.
Our tips for this match
- Over 1.5 goals · 86% · Fair odds 1.17 · MegaPari 1.07
- Over 2.5 goals · 68% · Fair odds 1.48 · MegaPari 1.36
- Both teams to score: yes · 66% · Fair odds 1.51 · MegaPari 1.36
Who will win RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?
There is little to separate the sides: RB Leipzig 43%, the draw 23%, PSV Eindhoven 35%. MegaPari's 2.08 on RB Leipzig is shorter than our fair price of 2.34: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (86%), over 2.5 goals (68%) and both teams to score: yes (66%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig to win | 43% | 2.34 | 2.08 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | 4.16 |
| PSV Eindhoven to win | 35% | 2.88 | 3.38 |
| RB Leipzig or draw | 65% | 1.53 | 1.37 |
| Draw or PSV Eindhoven | 57% | 1.75 | 1.83 |
| RB Leipzig or PSV Eindhoven | 77% | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 86% | 1.17 | 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals Tip | 68% | 1.48 | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.09 | 2.84 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54% | 1.87 | 1.89 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 66% | 1.51 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | 2.96 | 2.94 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
Goals are expected: 2.0 for RB Leipzig and 2.0 for PSV Eindhoven, 4.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 68%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 66%.
RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 8%, ahead of 1-2 (7%) and 2-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 13 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 7.7% | 12.99 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.40 |
| 2-2 | 7.3% | 13.66 |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | 13.76 |
| 1-3 | 5.0% | 19.96 |
Form: RB Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven in their last five
RB Leipzig have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. PSV Eindhoven have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +9. The results cover every competition in our data.
RB Leipzig: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Leverkusen (away)Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Hamburger SV (home)Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Como (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | SV Werder Bremen (away)Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Gladbach (home)Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
PSV Eindhoven: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Twente (away)Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam (home)Eredivisie | 4-1 | W |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk (home)UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Ajax (away)Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Utrecht (away)Eredivisie | 6-1 | W |
RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven head to head
RB Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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