Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 10 October

Real Madrid host Villarreal in LaLiga on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 22:00 EAT. The match is played at Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid). Real Madrid are 4th in the table with 15 points from 7 games; Villarreal are 9th with 8.

Our tips for this match

• Real Madrid to win · 72% · Fair odds 1.40 · MegaPari 1.37
• Real Madrid or draw · 88% · Fair odds 1.14 · MegaPari 1.09
• Over 1.5 goals · 84% · Fair odds 1.18 · MegaPari 1.03
• Over 2.5 goals · 69% · Fair odds 1.44 · MegaPari 1.26
• Both teams to score: yes · 60% · Fair odds 1.67 · MegaPari 1.49

Who will win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

The model makes Real Madrid clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 16% and Villarreal at 12%. MegaPari's 1.37 on Real Madrid sits right on our fair price of 1.40.

Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Real Madrid to win (72%), Real Madrid or draw (88%), over 1.5 goals (84%), over 2.5 goals (69%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Goals are expected: 2.7 for Real Madrid and 1.1 for Villarreal, 3.8 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 69%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-1 at 9%, ahead of 2-0 (8%) and 3-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.

Form: Real Madrid and Villarreal in their last five

Real Madrid have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Villarreal have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Real Madrid: last five matches

Villarreal: last five matches

Real Madrid vs Villarreal head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Real Madrid won 5, Villarreal won none and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 24 January 2026, finished Villarreal 0–2 Real Madrid.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.