Ligue 1
Rennes vs AJ Auxerre prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Rennes host AJ Auxerre in Ligue 1 on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 18:15 EAT. The match is played at Roazhon Park (Rennes). Rennes are 5th in the table with 10 points from 5 games; AJ Auxerre are 10th with 6.
Our tips for this match
- Rennes to win · 61% · Fair odds 1.65 · MegaPari 1.48
- Rennes or draw · 82% · Fair odds 1.22 · MegaPari 1.12
- Over 1.5 goals · 78% · Fair odds 1.28 · MegaPari 1.10
Who will win Rennes vs AJ Auxerre?
The model makes Rennes clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 21% and AJ Auxerre at 18%. MegaPari's 1.48 on Rennes is shorter than our fair price of 1.65: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Rennes to win (61%), Rennes or draw (82%) and over 1.5 goals (78%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes to win Tip | 61% | 1.65 | 1.48 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.73 | 5.14 |
| AJ Auxerre to win | 18% | 5.53 | 6.88 |
| Rennes or draw Tip | 82% | 1.22 | 1.12 |
| Draw or AJ Auxerre | 39% | 2.55 | 2.86 |
| Rennes or AJ Auxerre | 79% | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 78% | 1.28 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.67 | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.49 | 2.51 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.51 | 1.71 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | 1.78 | 1.64 |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | 2.28 | 2.15 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Rennes vs AJ Auxerre
Goals are expected: 1.9 for Rennes and 1.1 for AJ Auxerre, 3.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.
Rennes vs AJ Auxerre correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.24 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.14 |
| 1-0 | 8.9% | 11.29 |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 11.38 |
| 3-1 | 6.2% | 16.05 |
Form: Rennes and AJ Auxerre in their last five
Rennes have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. AJ Auxerre have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. The results cover every competition in our data.
Rennes: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Lyon (away)Ligue 1 | 0-4 | L |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Sturm Graz (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-0 | D |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Marseille (home)Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Angers SCO (away)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Le Mans (home)Ligue 1 | 3-2 | W |
AJ Auxerre: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Brest (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Nice (home)Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Lyon (away)Ligue 1 | 1-3 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Angers SCO (home)Ligue 1 | 1-3 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Lens (away)Ligue 1 | 2-5 | L |
Rennes vs AJ Auxerre head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Rennes won 1, AJ Auxerre won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 22 February 2026, finished AJ Auxerre 0–3 Rennes.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2026 | AJ Auxerre – RennesLigue 1 | 0-3 |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Rennes – AJ AuxerreLigue 1 | 2-2 |
| 6 Apr 2025 | Rennes – AJ AuxerreLigue 1 | 0-1 |
| 3 Nov 2024 | AJ Auxerre – RennesLigue 1 | 4-0 |
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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