Premier League
Sunderland vs Brighton prediction: Premier League, Saturday 10 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Sunderland host Brighton in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Stadium of Light (Sunderland). Sunderland are 14th in the table with 4 points from 5 games; Brighton are 3rd with 10.
Our tips for this match
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
Who will win Sunderland vs Brighton?
There is little to separate the sides: Sunderland 28%, the draw 27%, Brighton 45%. MegaPari pays 2.49 on Brighton, more than our fair price of 2.23.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland to win | 28% | 3.59 | 3.01 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | 3.56 |
| Brighton to win | 45% | 2.23 | 2.49 |
| Sunderland or draw | 55% | 1.82 | 1.60 |
| Draw or Brighton | 72% | 1.39 | 1.44 |
| Sunderland or Brighton | 73% | 1.37 | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.98 | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.02 | 2.08 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.83 | 1.61 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.20 | 2.20 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Sunderland vs Brighton
Expected goals are 0.9 for Sunderland and 1.5 for Brighton, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Sunderland vs Brighton correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (12%) and 0-2 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.89 |
| 0-1 | 12.3% | 8.11 |
| 0-2 | 9.8% | 10.21 |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | 10.74 |
| 0-0 | 8.9% | 11.26 |
Form: Sunderland and Brighton in their last five
Sunderland have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Brighton have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +11. The results cover every competition in our data.
Sunderland: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Man City (away)Premier League | 3-5 | L |
| 16 Sep 2026 | AZ (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Arsenal (home)Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Brentford (away)Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Fulham (home)Premier League | 1-0 | W |
Brighton: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Arsenal (home)Premier League | 3-0 | W |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Coventry City (away)Premier League | 5-0 | W |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Leeds (home)Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Chelsea (away)Premier League | 3-4 | L |
| 27 Aug 2026 | Tromso (home)UEFA Conference League | 4-0 | W |
Sunderland vs Brighton head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Sunderland won none, Brighton won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 14 March 2026, finished Sunderland 0–1 Brighton.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Sunderland – BrightonPremier League | 0-1 |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Brighton – SunderlandPremier League | 0-0 |
The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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