Ligue 1
Troyes vs Marseille prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Troyes host Marseille in Ligue 1 on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Stade de l'Aube (Troyes). Troyes are 16th in the table with 4 points from 5 games; Marseille are 17th with 3.
Our tips for this match
- Over 1.5 goals · 79% · Fair odds 1.26 · MegaPari 1.16
- Both teams to score: yes · 59% · Fair odds 1.70 · MegaPari 1.53
Who will win Troyes vs Marseille?
Marseille are favourites, though not by much: 51% to win, 24% for the draw and 26% for Troyes. MegaPari's 1.92 on Marseille sits right on our fair price of 1.98.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes to win | 26% | 3.92 | 4.03 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | 4.05 |
| Marseille to win | 51% | 1.98 | 1.92 |
| Troyes or draw | 49% | 2.02 | 1.98 |
| Draw or Marseille | 74% | 1.34 | 1.29 |
| Troyes or Marseille | 76% | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals Tip | 79% | 1.26 | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.70 | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.42 | 2.45 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 | 1.50 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 59% | 1.70 | 1.53 |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | 2.44 | 2.36 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Troyes vs Marseille
Goals are expected: 1.3 for Troyes and 1.8 for Marseille, 3.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.
Troyes vs Marseille correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-2 (10%) and 0-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.26 |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | 10.48 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.14 |
| 0-2 | 7.4% | 13.57 |
| 2-1 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
Form: Troyes and Marseille in their last five
Troyes have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -7. Marseille have not won in 5 (0 draws, 5 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Troyes: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Angers SCO (away)Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Lille (away)Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Strasbourg (home)Ligue 1 | 2-6 | L |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Lorient (away)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Paris (home)Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
Marseille: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | PSG (home)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Beşiktaş (away)UEFA Europa League | 1-4 | L |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Rennes (away)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | Paris (home)Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Monaco (away)Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
Troyes vs Marseille head to head
Troyes and Marseille have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
Promo code: TIPSQUANT