TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 10 October

TSG Hoffenheim host Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 16:30 EAT. The match is played at PreZero Arena (Sinsheim). TSG Hoffenheim are 14th in the table with 3 points from 4 games; Hamburger SV are 16th with 3.

Our tips for this match

• TSG Hoffenheim to win · 61% · Fair odds 1.64 · MegaPari 1.49
• TSG Hoffenheim or draw · 82% · Fair odds 1.22 · MegaPari 1.13
• Over 1.5 goals · 81% · Fair odds 1.23 · MegaPari 1.08
• Over 2.5 goals · 63% · Fair odds 1.58 · MegaPari 1.39
• Both teams to score: yes · 59% · Fair odds 1.70 · MegaPari 1.56

Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?

The model makes TSG Hoffenheim clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 21% and Hamburger SV at 18%. MegaPari's 1.49 on TSG Hoffenheim is shorter than our fair price of 1.64: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: TSG Hoffenheim to win (61%), TSG Hoffenheim or draw (82%), over 1.5 goals (81%), over 2.5 goals (63%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).

Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV

Goals are expected: 2.1 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.3 for Hamburger SV, 3.3 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.

TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 2-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (10%) and 2-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: TSG Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV in their last five

TSG Hoffenheim have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. Hamburger SV have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -11. The results cover every competition in our data.

TSG Hoffenheim: last five matches

Hamburger SV: last five matches

TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, TSG Hoffenheim won 2, Hamburger SV won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 25 April 2026, finished Hamburger SV 1–2 TSG Hoffenheim.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.