Serie A
US Lecce vs Bologna prediction: Serie A, Sunday 11 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
US Lecce host Bologna in Serie A on Sunday 11 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. The match is played at Comunale Via del Mare (Lecce). US Lecce are 12th in the table with 6 points from 5 games; Bologna are 18th with 2.
Our tips for this match
- Under 3.5 goals · 79% · Fair odds 1.27 · MegaPari 1.25
Who will win US Lecce vs Bologna?
Bologna are favourites, though not by much: 50% to win, 29% for the draw and 21% for US Lecce. MegaPari's 1.98 on Bologna sits right on our fair price of 1.99.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (79%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | MegaPari |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Lecce to win | 21% | 4.75 | 4.58 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | 3.44 |
| Bologna to win | 50% | 1.99 | 1.98 |
| US Lecce or draw | 50% | 2.01 | 1.92 |
| Draw or Bologna | 79% | 1.27 | 1.24 |
| US Lecce or Bologna | 71% | 1.40 | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | 1.32 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | 1.81 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 79% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | 2.05 | 1.87 |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | 1.95 | 1.85 |
Odds: MegaPari, as of 7 October 2026, 05:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in US Lecce vs Bologna
Expected goals are 0.8 for US Lecce and 1.4 for Bologna, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 44%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 49%.
US Lecce vs Bologna correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-1 at 16%, ahead of 1-1 (13%) and 0-0 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 15.6% | 6.41 |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.74 |
| 0-0 | 12.3% | 8.15 |
| 0-2 | 11.0% | 9.08 |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 11.66 |
Form: US Lecce and Bologna in their last five
US Lecce have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. Bologna have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
US Lecce: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | AC Milan (away)Serie A | 0-3 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Monza (home)Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| 7 Sep 2026 | Cagliari (away)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Roma (home)Serie A | 0-4 | L |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Venezia (away)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
Bologna: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Torino (home)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Napoli (away)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| 6 Sep 2026 | US Sassuolo (home)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Atalanta (away)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Lazio (home)Serie A | 0-1 | L |
US Lecce vs Bologna head to head
In their last six meetings in our data, US Lecce won none, Bologna won 3 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 12 April 2026, finished Bologna 2–0 US Lecce.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Bologna – US LecceSerie A | 2-0 |
| 28 Sep 2025 | US Lecce – BolognaSerie A | 2-2 |
| 9 Feb 2025 | US Lecce – BolognaSerie A | 0-0 |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Bologna – US LecceSerie A | 1-0 |
| 11 Feb 2024 | Bologna – US LecceSerie A | 4-0 |
| 3 Dec 2023 | US Lecce – BolognaSerie A | 1-1 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with MegaPari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is MegaPari.
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